| Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes |
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| 作者姓名： | WANG Yehong ZHAO Yuchun CUI Chunguang |
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| 作者单位： | Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain CMA，Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory，Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain，CMA，Wuhan 430074，Wuhan 430074，Wuhan 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省自然科学基金;国家科技攻关计划;国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | On the basis of the joint estimated 1-h precipitation from Changde, Jingzhou, and Yichang Doppler radars as well as Wuhan digital radar, and the retrieved wind fields from Yichang and Jingzhou Doppler radars, a series of numerical experiments with an advanced regionalη-coordinate model (AREM) under different model initial schemes, i.e., Grapes-3DVAR, Barnes objective analysis, and Barnes-3DVAR, are carried out for a torrential rain process occurring along the Yangtze River in the 24-h period from 2000 BT 22 July 2002 to investigate the effects of the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds on the rainfall forecast. The main results are as follows: (1) The simulations are obviously different under three initial schemes with the same data source (the radiosounding and T213L31 analysis). On the whole, Barnes-3DVAR, which combines the advantages of the Barnes objective analysis and the Grapes-3DVAR method, gives the best simulations: well-simulated rain band and clear mesoscale structures, as well as their location and intensity close to observations. (2) Both Barnes-3DVAR and Grapes-3DVAR schemes are able to assimilate the Doppler-radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds, but differences in simulation results are very large, with Barnes-3DVAR's simulation much better than Grapes-3DVAR's. (3) Under Grapes-3DVAR scheme, the simulation of 24-h rainfall is improved obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation into the model in compared with the control experiment; but it becomes a little worse when assimilating the Doppler-radar retrieved winds into the model, and it becomes worse obviously when assimilating the Doppler-radar estimated precipitation as well as retrieved winds into the model. However, the simulation is different under Barnes-3DVAR scheme. The simulation is improved to a certain degree no matter assimilating the estimated precipitation or retrieved winds, or both of them. The result is the best when assimilating both of them into the model. And (4) Barnes-3DVAR is a new and efficient initial scheme for assimilating the radar estimated rainfall and retrieved winds.
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| 关 键 词： | 多普勒雷达 同化 反演风场 估计降水 降水预报 模型框架 数值研究 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/1/16 0:00:00 |
Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes |
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| WANG Yehong,ZHAO Yuchun,CUI Chunguang.Numerical Research on Effects Upon Precipitation Forecast of Doppler-Radar Estimated Precipitation and Retrieved Wind Field Under Different Model Initial Schemes[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(1):98-113. |
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| Authors: | WANG Yehong ZHAO Yuchun and CUI Chunguang Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain CMA Wuhan Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory Wuhan |
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| Institution: | [1]Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA, Wuhan 430074 [2]Wuhan Central Meteorological Observatory, Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | Doppler-radar estimated precipitation retrieved winds assimilation rainfall forecast |
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