| Reliability Analyses of Anomalies of NCEP/NCAR Reanalyzed Wind Speed and Surface Air Temperature in Climate Change Research in China |
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| 作者姓名： | SHI Xiaohui XU Xiangde XIE Li'an |
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| 作者单位： | State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences，Beijing 100081，China，State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather，Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences，Beijing 100081，China，Department of Marine，Earth and Atmospheric Sciences，North Carolina State University，Raleigh NC 27695-8208，USA |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金;国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) |
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| 摘 要： | By means of varied statistical methods,such as normalized root mean square error(RMSE),correlation analysis,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,etc.,the reliability of the varied seasonal anomalies of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind speed and surface air temperature(SAT)data frequently used in the climate change research in China is studied.Results show that RMSEs of meteorological variables are smaller in eastern China than in western China,i.e.,the reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in eastern China is better than that in western China.This could be due to effects of the topography in the reanalysis model and the disposition of"dense-in-eastern-and-sparse-in-western"of meteorological stations in China. The RMSE of anomalies of reanalyzed wind speeds decreases with increasing height,further confirming the possible impact of topography on reliability of reanalysis.Results of correlation analysis inversely correspond to those of RMSE analysis,i.e.,if the RMSE is larger,the correlation between reanalyzed and observed data is worse,and vice versa.It is found from comparing the EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data that if a meteorological variable has smaller RMSE,the spatial patterns of corresponding EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data are similar and their time coefficients are significantly correlated,and vice versa.Therefore,the similarity of EOF modes and the consistency of their time coefficients can be used to objectively assess the reliability of the reanalysis.On the whole,the reliability of the reanalyzed wind speed is better in spring,summer,and autumn,but worse in winter;and for the reanalyzed SAT,it is the best in winter and the worst in summer.
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| 关 键 词： | 中国 气候变化 地表温度 风速 可靠性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007/4/13 0:00:00 |
Reliability Analyses of Anomalies of NCEP/NCAR Reanalyzed Wind Speed and Surface Air Temperature in Climate Change Research in China |
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| SHI Xiaohui,XU Xiangde,XIE Li''an.Reliability Analyses of Anomalies of NCEP/NCAR Reanalyzed Wind Speed and Surface Air Temperature in Climate Change Research in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(3):320-333. |
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| Authors: | SHI Xiaohui XU Xiangde XIE Li'an |
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| Institution: | [1]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China [2]Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh NC |
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| Abstract: | By means of varied statistical methods,such as normalized root mean square error(RMSE),correlation analysis,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition,etc.,the reliability of the varied seasonal anomalies of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed wind speed and surface air temperature(SAT)data frequently used in the climate change research in China is studied.Results show that RMSEs of meteorological variables are smaller in eastern China than in western China,i.e.,the reliability of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in eastern China is better than that in western China.This could be due to effects of the topography in the reanalysis model and the disposition of"dense-in-eastern-and-sparse-in-western"of meteorological stations in China. The RMSE of anomalies of reanalyzed wind speeds decreases with increasing height,further confirming the possible impact of topography on reliability of reanalysis.Results of correlation analysis inversely correspond to those of RMSE analysis,i.e.,if the RMSE is larger,the correlation between reanalyzed and observed data is worse,and vice versa.It is found from comparing the EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data that if a meteorological variable has smaller RMSE,the spatial patterns of corresponding EOF eigenvectors of anomaly of reanalyzed and observed data are similar and their time coefficients are significantly correlated,and vice versa.Therefore,the similarity of EOF modes and the consistency of their time coefficients can be used to objectively assess the reliability of the reanalysis.On the whole,the reliability of the reanalyzed wind speed is better in spring,summer,and autumn,but worse in winter;and for the reanalyzed SAT,it is the best in winter and the worst in summer. |
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| Keywords: | NCEP/NCAR reanalysis RMSE correlation analysis EOF decomposition data reliability |
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