| Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets |
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| 作者姓名： | YU Hui HU Chunmei JIANG Leyi |
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| 作者单位： | Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMA，Chongqing Meteorological Observatory，Shanghai Typhoon Institute，CMA，Shanghai 200030 Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique CMA Shanghai 200030，Chongqing 401147，Shanghai 200030 Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique CMA Shanghai 200030 |
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| 摘 要： | Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 风力强度 数据集 比较研究 预报中心 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/8/2007 12:00:00 AM |
Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets |
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| YU Hui,HU Chunmei,JIANG Leyi.Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(1):121-128. |
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| Authors: | YU Hui HU Chunmei and JIANG Leyi Shanghai Typhoon Institute CMA Shanghai Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique CMA Shanghai Chongqing Meteorological Observatory Chongqing |
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| Institution: | [1]Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 [2]Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique, CMA, Shanghai 200030 [3]Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, Chongqing 401147 |
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| Abstract: | Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data |
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