| A MODEL OF INTEGRATED RANDOM INITIAL VALUES AND RANDOM FORCING AND ITS PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT |
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| 作者姓名： | Hu Zengzhen Shi Jiu'en Zhang Jianzhong |
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| 作者单位： | Beijing Institute of Meteorology Beijing，Beijing Institute of Meteorology，Beijing，Computing Centre，Academia Sinica，Beijing |
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| 摘 要： | A simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model is used as the dynamic frame of themodel in this paper.Considering that there are many random errors in model's initial values of meteorolo-gical data,and that it is not perfectly complete about model's physical processes (for example,take no ac-count of the interaction between atmosphere and underlying surface,radiation,etc.),we add the random for-ced term to the model and use the Monte-Carlo method with random initial values.A statistical-dynamicintegrated model is thus built up,and a numerical forecasting experiment of 500hPa monthly mean height fieldof January 1983 has been carried out.The experiment result proves that the forecasting result of the model,considering random forcing and random initial values at the same time,is better than that by the pure dynamicmodel,the random initial value model and the random forced model.
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| 收稿时间： | 1989/5/29 0:00:00 |
A MODEL OF INTEGRATED RANDOM INITIAL VALUES AND RANDOM FORCING AND ITS PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT |
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| Hu Zengzhen,Shi Jiu''en,Zhang Jianzhong.A MODEL OF INTEGRATED RANDOM INITIAL VALUES AND RANDOM FORCING AND ITS PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENT[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1991,5(1):101-109. |
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| Authors: | Hu Zengzhen Shi Jiu'en and Zhang Jianzhong |
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| Institution: | Beijing Institute of Meteorology, Beijing;Beijing Institute of Meteorology, Beijing;Computing Centre, Academia Sinica, Beijing |
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| Abstract: | A simple quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model is used as the dynamic frame of the model in this paper.Considering that there are many random errors in model's initial values of meteorolo- gical data,and that it is not perfectly complete about model's physical processes (for example,take no ac- count of the interaction between atmosphere and underlying surface,radiation,etc.),we add the random for- ced term to the model and use the Monte-Carlo method with random initial values.A statistical-dynamic integrated model is thus built up,and a numerical forecasting experiment of 500hPa monthly mean height field of January 1983 has been carried out.The experiment result proves that the forecasting result of the model, considering random forcing and random initial values at the same time,is better than that by the pure dynamic model,the random initial value model and the random forced model. |
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| Keywords: | Monte-Carlo forecast random forcing random initial values numerical experiment |
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