Monsoon Change in East Asia in the 21st Century: Results of RegCM3 |
| |
| Authors: | SUI Yue and LANG Xian-Mei |
| |
| Institution: | Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049;International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
| |
| Abstract: | The authors investigate monsoon change in East Asia in the 21st century under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario using the results of a regional climate model, RegCM3, with a high horizontal resolution. First, we evaluate the model's performance compared with NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, showing that the model can reliably reproduce the basic climatology of both winter and summer monsoons over East Asia. Next, it is found that the winter monsoon in East Asia would slightly weaken in the 21st century with spatial differences. Over North China, anomalous southerly winds would dominate in the mid- and late- 21st century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast is expected to become smaller, due to a stronger warming trend over land than over ocean. However, the intensity of the summer monsoon in East Asia shows a statistically significant upward trend over this century because the zonal land-sea thermal contrast between East Asia and the western North Pacific would become larger, which, in turn, would lead to larger sea level pressure gradients throughout East Asia and extending to the adjacent ocean. |
| |
| Keywords: | monsoon East Asia RegCM3 projection |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《大气和海洋科学快报》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《大气和海洋科学快报》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
