| Projection of Water Availability in the Miyun Watershed from an RCM Simulation |
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| 作者姓名： | SHI Ying GAO Xue-Jie |
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| 基金项目： | supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 40975041;the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant 2009CB421407 |
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| 摘 要： | Based on a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) simulation over East Asia, future climate changes over the Miyun Reservoir in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed. The model simulation extends from 1951 to 2100 at a grid spacing of 25 km and is one-way nested within a global model of MIROC3.2_ hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). The focus of the analysis is on the Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, the main water supply for Beijing in northern China. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed temperature well but it overestimates precipitation over the region. Significant warming in the 21st century is simulated in the annual mean, December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA), although with differences concerning the spatial distribution and magnitude. Changes in precipitation for the annual mean, DJF, and JJA also show differences. A prevailing increase of precipitation in DJF and a decrease of it in JJA is projected over the region, while little change in the annual mean is projected. Changes of the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration to measure the potential water availability are also presented in the paper.
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| 关 键 词： | Miyun Reservoir climate change regional climate model |
Projection of Water Availability in the Miyun Watershed from an RCM Simulation |
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| SHI Ying,GAO Xue-Jie.Projection of Water Availability in the Miyun Watershed from an RCM Simulation[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):468-472. |
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| Authors: | SHI Ying and GAO Xue-Jie |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Based on a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) simulation over East Asia, future climate changes over the Miyun Reservoir in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed. The model simulation extends from 1951 to 2100 at a grid spacing of 25 km and is one-way nested within a global model of MIROC3.2_hires (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate). The focus of the analysis is on the Watershed of Miyun Reservoir, the main water supply for Beijing in northern China. The results show that RegCM3 reproduces the observed temperature well but it overestimates precipitation over the region. Significant warming in the 21st century is simulated in the annual mean, December-January-February (DJF) and June-July-August (JJA), although with differences concerning the spatial distribution and magnitude. Changes in precipitation for the annual mean, DJF and JJA also show differences. A prevailing increase of precipitation in DJF and a decrease of it in JJA is projected over the region, while little change in the annual mean is projected. Changes of the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration to measure the potential water availability are also presented in the paper. |
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| Keywords: | Miyun Reservoir climate change regional climate model |
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