| 基于5分钟雷达资料降水估测模型的比较 |
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| 作者姓名： | LIU Yong-He ZHANG Wan-Chang SHAO Yue-Hong ZHANG Jing-Ying |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所,南京大学水科学研究中心,中国科学院大气物理研究所, |
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| 基金项目： | Acknowledgements. We are very much indebted to the staffs of the Linyi Meteorological Bureau in Shandong Province for their help and support in meteorological data observation and other relevant data collection throughout our research. The work presented here is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40971024）, the National Basic Research Program of China （Grant No. 2006CB400502）, and the Special Meteorology Project （GYHY（QX）2007-6-1）. |
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| 摘 要： | For the Z-R relationship in radar-based rainfall estimation, the distribution of corresponding R values for a given Z value （or the corresponding Z value for a given R value） may be highly skewed. However, the traditional power-law model is physically deduced and fitted under the normal-distribution presumption of radar wave echoes associated with a rain rate value, and it may not be very appropriate. Considering this problem, the authors devised several generalized linear models with different forms and distribution presumptions to represent the Z-R relationship. Radar-reflectivity scans observed by a CINRAD/SC Doppler radar and 5-minute rainfall accumulation recorded by 10 ground gauges were used to fit these models. All data used in this study were collected during some large rainfalls of the period from 2005 to 2007. The radar and all gauges were installed in the catchment of the Yishu River, a branch of the Huaihe River in China. Three models based on normal distribution and a dBZ presumption of gamma distribution were fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques, which were resolved by genetic algorithms. Comparisons of estimated maximized likelihoods based on assumptions of gamma and normal distribution showed that all generalized linear models （GLMs） of presumed gamma distribution were better fitted than GLMs based on normal distribution. In a comparison of maximum-likelihood, the differences between these three models were small. Three error statistics were used to assess the agreement between radar estimated rainfall and gauge rainfall： relative bias （B）, root mean square error （RMSE）, and correlation coefficient （r）. The results showed that no one model was excellent in all criteria. On the whole, the GLM-based models gave smaller relative bias than the traditional power-law model. It is suggested that validations conducted in many previous works should have been made against a specific criterion but overlooked others.
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| 关 键 词： | 降水模型 雷达波 广义线性模型 估测 正态分布 幂律模型 淮河流域 伽玛分布 |
A Comparison of Several 5-Minute Radar-Rainfall Estimation Models |
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| LIU Yong-He,ZHANG Wan-Chang,SHAO Yue-Hong,ZHANG Jing-Ying.A Comparison of Several 5-Minute Radar-Rainfall Estimation Models[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2009,2(6):327-332. |
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| Authors: | LIU Yong-He ZHANG Wan-Chang SHAO Yue-Hong and ZHANG Jing-Ying |
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| Institution: | RCE-TEA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029;Graduate University of Chinese Academy Sciences, Beijing 100049;Institute of Resources and Environment, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000,Center for Hydro-Sciences Research, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093,International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093,Linyi Meteorological Bureau, Shandong province, Linyi 276004 |
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| Abstract: | For the Z-R relationship in radar-based rainfall estimation, the distribution of corresponding R values for a given Z value (or the corresponding Z value for a given R value) may be highly skewed. However, the traditional power-law model is physically deduced and fitted under the normal-distribution presumption of radar wave echoes associated with a rain rate value, and it may not be very appropriate. Considering this problem, the authors devised several generalized linear models with different forms and distribution presumptions to represent the Z-R relationship. Radar-reflectivity scans observed by a CINRAD/SC Doppler radar and 5-minute rainfall accumulation recorded by 10 ground gauges were used to fit these models. All data used in this study were collected during some large rainfalls of the period from 2005 to 2007. The radar and all gauges were installed in the catchment of the Yishu River, a branch of the Huaihe River in China. Three models based on normal distribution and a dBZ presumption of gamma distribution were fitted using maximum-likelihood techniques, which were resolved by genetic algorithms. Comparisons of estimated maximized likelihoods based on assumptions of gamma and normal distribution showed that all generalized linear models (GLMs) of presumed gamma distribution were better fitted than GLMs based on normal distribution. In a comparison of maximum-likelihood, the differences between these three models were small. Three error statistics were used to assess the agreement between radar estimated rainfall and gauge rainfall: relative bias (B), root mean square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (r). The results showed that no one model was excellent in all criteria. On the whole, the GLM-based models gave smaller relative bias than the traditional power-law model. It is suggested that validations conducted in many previous works should have been made against a specific criterion but overlooked others. |
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| Keywords: | Z-R relationship Doppler radar precipitation generalized linear models genetic algorithms |
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