| 二阶位涡在暴雨预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 周冠博,高守亭.二阶位涡在暴雨预报中的应用[J].湖北气象,2014(4):320-324. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周冠博 高守亭 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局国家气象中心;中国科学院大气物理研究所;中国气象科学研究院;灾害天气国家重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41375052);中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2013LASW-A06) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出并推导二阶位涡物理量,并利用美国NCEP/NCAR 0.5°×0.5°GFS的24 h预报资料,计算了东北冷涡暴雨、锋面暴雨、低槽暴雨、台风暴雨等类型暴雨500—850 h Pa二阶位涡绝对值的垂直积分,与相对应时刻的24 h累积地面观测降水量进行对比。结果表明：二阶位涡的水平分布与暴雨落区有较好的对应关系,其对观测降水具有指示预测作用。2013年6—8月华南地区（20°—35°N,105°—125°E）24 h预报的6 h累计降水量大于10 mm的ETS评分表明,二阶位涡预报降水的平均ETS评分高于美国GFS预报降水的平均ETS评分,其对降水有较好的指示作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 二阶位涡 暴雨预报 指示作用 |
The application of second order potential vorticity in the forecast of rainstorm |
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| Institution: | ZHOU Guanbo , GAO Shouting (National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081; Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Belting 100029; 3. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081) |
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| Abstract: | The second order potential vorticity was introduced and derived in this paper. Using NCEP/NCAR 0.5°× 0.5°GFS 24 h forecast data, the vertical integration of the absolute value of the second order potential vorticity from 500 hPa to 850 hPa was calculated for rainstorms associated northeast cold vortices, fronts, cold shear lines and typhoons. The calculated results were compared with the corresponding observed 24 h accumulative ground precipitation. The results show that the second order potential vorticity and the precipitation areas are closely related, and the second order potential vorticity is a good indicator to forecast precipitation. The ETS grades were further calculated for cases with 6 h accumulative precipitation higher than 10 mm in the 24 h forecast in south-China area （20°-35°N, 105°-125°E） from June to August in 2013. which shows that the second order potential vorticity is a good forecast utility to the observed precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | second order potential vorticiy precipitation forecast rainstorm |
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