| ECMWF降水极端天气指数在浙江的应用评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 傅良,张玉静,罗玲,娄小芬,钱浩,沈文强.ECMWF降水极端天气指数在浙江的应用评估[J].湖北气象,2021(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 傅良 张玉静 罗玲 娄小芬 钱浩 沈文强 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象台;杭州市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省气象科技计划项目(2018ZD10);浙江省气象局预报员专项(2018YBY01)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2016年6月—2017年5月ECMWF降水极端天气指数(EFI)预报资料,分析了降水EFI与不同量级强降水、降水气候百分位在浙江的关系。结果表明:总体而言,浙江省降水EFI与实况降水存在明显的正相关关系。随着EFI阈值的增加,暴雨发生频次先增加后减少,而且暴雨发生的概率随着EFI阈值的增加而增大。综合考虑TS、BS评分,EFI阈值随着预报时效的延长而减小;随着降水量级的增加而增大。降水EFI值与降水气候百分位存在明显的正相关关系,当EFI值较高时,预示着较大的几率出现极端降水,此时可参考当地相对应的气候百分位的降水量来估计降水。
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 极端天气指数 暴雨 气候百分位 |
Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index(EFI)from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province |
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| FU Liang,ZHANG Yujing,LUO Ling,LOU Xiaofen,QIAN Hao,SHEN Wenqiang.Application assessment of precipitation extreme forecast index(EFI)from ECMWF in Zhejiang Province[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2021(1). |
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| Authors: | FU Liang ZHANG Yujing LUO Ling LOU Xiaofen QIAN Hao SHEN Wenqiang |
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| Institution: | (Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory,Hangzhou 310017;Hangzhou Meteorological Administration,Hangzhou 310051) |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index(EFI)derived from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system(EPS)from June 2016 to May 2017 is applied to evaluate the statistical relationship between the EFI and the severe precipitation as well as the climatic precipitation percentile in Zhejiang.Results show that there is an obvious positive correlation between the EFI and the observed precipitation in Zhejiang.With the increase of the EFI threshold,the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases,and the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of EFI threshold.With the increase of the EFI,the frequency of rainstorm increases at first and then decreases,while the probability of rainstorm increases with the increase of the EFI.Considering the TS and BS scores comprehensively,the threshold of the EFI decreases with the increase of forecast time length and increase with the increase of precipitation.There is a significant positive correlation between the EFI value and the climatic percentile of precipitation.The greater the EFI is,the higher the percentile is.Thus,the precipitation amount can be estimated according to the corresponding climatic percentile of the observed precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | ensemble forecast extreme forecast index rainstorm climatic percentile |
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