| 鄂东南一次大暴雨过程成因分析与潜势预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄治勇,王珏,王兴涛,毛以伟.鄂东南一次大暴雨过程成因分析与潜势预报[J].湖北气象,2007,26(2):125-129. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄治勇 王珏 王兴涛 毛以伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉中心气象台 武汉430074(黄治勇，王珏，毛以伟)，湖北省宜昌三峡机场 宜昌443007(王兴涛) |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局重点推广项目
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湖北省气象局青年基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用天气图资料和AREM中尺度数值模式逐时预报产品,用天气学方法对2006年5月8日发生在湖北省东南部的大暴雨过程进行天气背景、动力、热力特征及潜势预报分析。分析表明:200～500hPa上贝加尔湖至四川盆地深厚的西风带低槽以及配合低槽东移的南支槽系统、脊线稳定在19°N附近的西太平洋副热带高压和850hPa上新生的低涡是本次大暴雨过程的主要影响系统。200hPa上高空急流右后方强烈辐散,其抽吸作用加剧了中低层的上升运动,700hPa上西南急流的稳定维持为本次过程提供了丰富的水汽。大暴雨发生在se高能舌、对流稳定度指数负值中心以及700hPa、850hPa比湿之和的湿舌的左前方。对流有效位能CAPE、风暴相对螺旋度SRH等对流参数对强降水的发生、发展有较好的潜势预报指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 大暴雨 成因 潜势预报 对流参数 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9045（2007）02-0125-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-08-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-04 |
Analysis of a Heavy Rain Event in Southeast Hubei Province and Application in Potential Prediction |
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| HUANG Zhi-yong,WANG Jue,WANG Xing-tao,MAO Yi-wei.Analysis of a Heavy Rain Event in Southeast Hubei Province and Application in Potential Prediction[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2007,26(2):125-129. |
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| Authors: | HUANG Zhi-yong WANG Jue WANG Xing-tao MAO Yi-wei |
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| Abstract: | By using meteorological method with synoptic chart and hour-by-hour mesoscale model(AREM) data,Weather background,dynamical and thermodynamic character and application in potential prediction of a heavy rain event in southeast Hubei province on May 8th,2006 was analyzed.The results show that: the mostly affect system of this process were profound west wind low trough form Baikal to Szechwan Pan at 200-500 hPa,southern branch trough,western pacific subtropical high with ridge on 19oN and neonatal low eddy at 850 hPa.Divergence happened in the right-backside of high level jet at 200 hPa,and the pump function pricked up middle and lower level rising motion,the persistence of southwest rush at 700h offered rich vapor for this process.The big rainstorm happened where was high,negative center of convection stability index and at the left-frontage of center of sum of humidity in 700 hPa and 850 hPa,Convective available potential energy and storm relative helix preferably indicate the occurrence and development of the strong precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | Extra-heavy rain Cause Application in potential prediction Convective parameters |
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