| 一次特大暴雨过程高分辨率集合预报试验的检验和评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 李俊,杜钧,许建玉,王明欢.一次特大暴雨过程高分辨率集合预报试验的检验和评估[J].湖北气象,2020,39(2):176-184. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李俊 杜钧 许建玉 王明欢 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205,美国国家海洋大气局国家环境预报中心,华盛顿98101,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205,中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对2018年4月22日发生在湖北西部山地的一次特大暴雨过程,采用降尺度方案和显式对流参数化方案模式,开展了高分辨率对流许可尺度(3 km)的集合预报试验,并对全球集合预报(GEFS)和对流尺度集合预报(SSEF)的降水预报进行了对比评估,结果表明:(1)SSEF集合平均的雨量和落区预报均优于GEFS。(2)SSEF各成员的降水离散度分布更合理,因而具有更优的降水区间预报,其“离散度-误差关系”更优,能更好地给出预报误差的分布及其可能的大小。(3)SSEF的概率预报在所有空间尺度上均优于GEFS,且在短历时强降水上的优势更加明显。由此可见,针对此类山地暴雨过程,对流尺度集合预报相对于全球集合预报具有巨大的改进潜力。
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| 关 键 词： | 对流尺度集合预报 集合预报检验评估 山地暴雨 |
The assessment and verification of high-resolution ensemble forecast for a heavy rainstorm |
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| LI Jun,DU Jun,XU Jianyu,WANG Minghuan.The assessment and verification of high-resolution ensemble forecast for a heavy rainstorm[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2020,39(2):176-184. |
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| Authors: | LI Jun DU Jun XU Jianyu WANG Minghuan |
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| Institution: | (Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,China Meteorological Administration,Wuhan 430205;National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NOAA,Washington DC,98101) |
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| Abstract: | Based on a high-resolution(3 km)model with convection-allowing microphysics scheme,a storm-scale ensemble forecast(SSEF)was carried out for a heavy rainstorm which occurred in the western mountainous area of Hubei Province on 22 April 2018.The perturbations used by the SSEF in the initial and lateral boundary conditions were downscaled from a global ensemble forecast system(GEFS).The comparison of the SSEF with the GEFS shows that the SSEF is superior to the GEFS in the following three aspects.(1)The ensemble mean forecast of the SSEF was more accurate in both precipitation amount and location.(2)The ensemble spread in precipitation forecasts of the SSEF is more reasonable.The forecast range(minimum to maximum)predicted by the SSEF has a higher chance to encompass the observed precipitation,and the spread of the SSEF matched the forecast error better(a better spread-skill relation).(3)The SSEF produced more superior probabilistic heavy-rain forecasts in all spatial and temporal scales,especially in smaller spatial and shorter time scale.This study suggests that,for those local and short-duration mountainous rainstorms,storm-scale ensemble forecasting has great potential to improve over the global ensemble forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | Storm-scale ensemble forecast ensemble verification mountainous torrential rain |
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