| 2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈敏,郑祚芳,王迎春,范水勇,仲跻芹,王在文.2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报检验[J].湖北气象,2007,26(2):109-117. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈敏 郑祚芳 王迎春 范水勇 仲跻芹 王在文 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局北京城市气象研究所 北京100089 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市科技新星计划项目
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国家自然科学基金
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北京市科委科技奥运专项基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用北京地区自动站逐小时观测降水资料对2006年汛期北京地区中尺度数值业务降水预报效果进行了客观检验,并针对2006年汛期的降水特点对模式的降水预报性能进行了初步的评估,着重对发生的28次降水过程按其主导的天气系统进行了分类,并对各个类型的降水预报进行了评分检验,根据检验结果分析了数值业务模式对于夏季不同天气系统导致的降水过程的预报能力,并且对不同分辨率的模式网格的预报性能进行了初步对比。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水检验 数值天气预报 客观检验 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9045（2007）02-0109-09 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-04-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-15 |
Evaluation of Operational Precipitation Forecasts in Beijing Area During the Flooding Season of 2006 |
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| CHEN Min,ZHENG Zuo-fang,WANG Ying-chun,FAN Shui-yong,ZHONG Ji-qin,WANG Zai-wen.Evaluation of Operational Precipitation Forecasts in Beijing Area During the Flooding Season of 2006[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2007,26(2):109-117. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Min ZHENG Zuo-fang WANG Ying-chun FAN Shui-yong ZHONG Ji-qin WANG Zai-wen |
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| Institution: | Institute of urban meteorology, CMA, Beijing, 100089 |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,the operational numerical precipitation forecasts of BMB during the flooding season of 2006 were verified against the hourly accumulated precipitation from AWS observation data in Beijing area.The 28 precipitation incidents during the whole flooding season were identified into 6 categories according to their dominant synoptic weather systems.From their verification scores,the forecast capability of the operational numerical model of BMB for each precipitation category in Beijing area was analyzed.Moreover,a preliminary comparison of the precipitation forecast capability between different model resolutions was conducted. |
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| Keywords: | Precipitation Verification Numerical Weather Forecast Objective Verification |
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