| 利用数值预报产品制作府环河流域面雨量预报试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓兴旺,张涛,吴涛涛.利用数值预报产品制作府环河流域面雨量预报试验[J].湖北气象,2008,27(1):68-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓兴旺 张涛 吴涛涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖北省孝感市气象局,孝感432000 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省气象局科技发展基金科研项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以府环河流域内所有加密自动气象站降水资料为基础，使用泰森多边形法计算实况面雨量，利用T213、GRAPES、MM5、JAPAN和GERMANY数值预报模式短期降水预报产品，将其在府环河流域上所有格点资料的算术平均值作为预报因子，采用灰色预测GM（0，h）模型，制作府环河流域24h、48h面雨量预报。经过2007年主汛期6～8月预报业务实际应用，其面雨量预报能力较强，其中面雨量暴雨预报Ts综合评分，24h的为52．0％，48h的为40.0％。
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| 关 键 词： | 自动气象站 面雨量 数值预报产品 灰色预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-9045(2008)01-0068-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年7月4日 |
An Experiment Research of Predicting Area Rainfall Based on Numerical Weather Forecasting Products over Fuhuan River Valley |
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| DENG Xing-wang,ZHANG Tao,WU Tao-tao.An Experiment Research of Predicting Area Rainfall Based on Numerical Weather Forecasting Products over Fuhuan River Valley[J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei,2008,27(1):68-72. |
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| Authors: | DENG Xing-wang ZHANG Tao WU Tao-tao |
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| Institution: | DENG Xing-wang,ZHANG Tao,WU Tao-tao(Xiaogan Meteorological Bureau of Hubei Province ,Xiaogan 432000) |
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| Abstract: | By using the precipitation data of Integrated Automatic Meteorological Station, actual area rainfall is calculated based on Tyson polygon method over Fuhuan river valley. The arithmetic average of area rainfall productions of T213,GRAPES,MMS,JAPAN and GERMANY on the grid is as the forecast factor 24 hours and 48 hours area rainfall forecast is made by means of the Gray Forecast Model GM （0,h）. During the operation application in the main flood season from June to August in 2007, composite score Ts of area rainfall rainstorm forecasting are 52.0% for 24 hours and 40.0% for 48 hours. |
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| Keywords: | Automatic weather station Area rainfall Numerical weather Forecasting products Gray forecast |
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