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| 中国东部夏季主要降水型的年代际变化及趋势分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 顾薇,李崇银,杨辉.中国东部夏季主要降水型的年代际变化及趋势分析[J].气象学报,2005,63(5):728-739. |
| 作者姓名： | 顾薇 李崇银 杨辉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029;解放军理工大学气象学院,南京,211101 3. 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京,100029 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40233033)，中国科学院创新项目(KZCX3-SW-226) |
| 摘 要： | 针对中国东部夏季降水存在着20世纪50和60年代为“南旱北涝”、80和90年代为“南涝北旱”的相反形势,该文应用小波分析等方法对华北和长江中下游地区近54 a来的夏季降水进行分析,发现二者都具有不同周期的年代际变化。对于周期小于24 a的年代际变化,其morlet小波分析表明两地夏季降水的位相关系并不是固定的。对于更长的时间尺度,用正交小波分析了周期大于28 a的年代际变化,这种长周期的年代际变化能较好地体现出“南旱北涝”和“南涝北旱”两种形势,说明两地降水还存在着更长时间尺度的准周期变化。对于两地降水的这种长周期变化,分别选用不同位相的17 a为代表进行海温、环流形势的合成分析,对比发现两阶段所对应的海温、环流形势具有极明显的差异。最后,用近期的海温、环流形势与上述两种位相的海温、环流形势进行对比,讨论了未来降水型的可能演变趋势。 |
| 关 键 词： | 夏季降水 南旱(涝)北涝(旱) 海温 环流形势 趋势分析。 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005/4/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年4月22日 |
ANALYSIS ON INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF SUMMER RAINFALL AND ITS TREND IN EAST CHINA |
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| Gu Wei,Li Chongyin and Yang Hui.ANALYSIS ON INTERDECADAL VARIATION OF SUMMER RAINFALL AND ITS TREND IN EAST CHINA[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(5):728-739. | |
| Authors: | Gu Wei Li Chongyin and Yang Hui |
| Abstract: | In the 1950s and 1960s,summer rainfall was abundant over North China(NC) and below average over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River(YR).While in the 1980s and 1990s,North China was obsessed with severe droughts and YR was more flooded.In case of the opposite spatial distribution of summer rainfall over East China(ECSR) between the two periods,by wavelet analysis,ECSR from 1951 to 2004 have been studied and it was found that both summer rainfalls over NC and over YR exist obvious interdecadal variations with different time scales.For variations with time scales shorter than 24 years,morlet wavelet analysis shows that the phase between summer rainfall over NC and YR is not fixed.For variations with longer time scale,study on orthogonal wavelet analysis was conducted and the results are in agreement with the opposite spatial distribution between the two periods as mentioned in the beginning.It proves that ECSR has the characteristic of interdecadal variations with longer periods.And for this kind of variation, 17 years are chosen from the two periods and make a contrast of their SST distribution and atmospheric circulation.Results show that they are totally different in 1950s and 1960s from that in the 1970s and 1980s.Finally,by comparing SST distribution and atmospheric circulation in recent years with that in the previous years,the possible trend of ECSR in the future are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Summer rainfall Drought(flood) in south and flood(drought) in north SST Circulation pattern Trend analysis |
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