| 北太平洋海温异常对中国东北地区旱涝的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙力,安刚.北太平洋海温异常对中国东北地区旱涝的影响[J].气象学报,2003,61(3):346-353. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙力 安刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省气象科学研究所,长春,130062 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部社会公益研究立项资金，国家自然科学基金(4 0 2 75 0 19) |
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| 摘 要： | 文中利用 196 1～ 2 0 0 0年中国东北地区 80个测站 4 0a的月降水和同一时期的北太平洋海温资料以及奇异值分解 (SVD)技术 ,分析了北太平洋海温异常对中国东北地区夏季旱涝的影响。结果表明 :东北地区夏季降水与北太平洋海温异常之间存在着较为密切的联系 ,当前期冬季和春季甚至是前一年夏季赤道中东太平洋海温如果处于异常偏暖 (或偏冷 )状态 ,并且西风漂流区具有较明显的SST负 (或正 )距平分布时 ,则东北大部分地区夏季降水具有整体偏多 (或偏少 )的倾向。当然 ,东北地区降水与北太平洋海温异常之间的这种联系也并非是简单的一一对应的关系
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| 关 键 词： | 中国东北地区 夏季旱涝 海温异常 奇异值分解 |
| 收稿时间： | 5/8/2002 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年5月8日 |
THE EFFECT OF NORTH PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CHINA |
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| Sun Li and An Gang.THE EFFECT OF NORTH PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ON THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CHINA[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,61(3):346-353. |
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| Authors: | Sun Li and An Gang |
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| Institution: | Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062;Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) monthly mean data and the summer precipitation from 80 observational stations of Northeast China for the period 1961 to 2000, the relationship between the north Pacific SST anomaly in preceding seasons and the summer precipitation in Northeast China has been studied by using the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) technique. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The summer precipitation in Northeast China has the very close relations with the north Pacific SST anomaly in preceding winter, spring and even the last summer. The first coupling modes of the SVD analysis of the rainfall and the SST fields can account for a rather big proportion of the total covariance contribution, the highest exceeds 60%. The correlation coefficients of the modes also far exceed 99.9% significance level. Because the asynchronous connections between the SST anomaly and the precipitation are rather stable and have the obvious persistence from the last summer up to the preceding spring, therefore taking the preceding SST distribution of north Pacific especially the ENSO event as the precursor signal to predict the summer precipitation tendency in Northeast China has the good reliability and definite indicative significance to a certain extent. (2) When the equatorial middle East Pacific SST is the positive (or negative) departure distribution and the west wind drift region SST is the negative (or positive) departure distribution, i.e. the north Pacific SST emerges in the El Nio (or La Nina) type phase from the last summer to the preceding spring, then the Northeast China tends to be more (or less) precipitation than its normal in summer as a whole, especially the central part and the west part of Northeast China are even more obvious. The covariance contribution of this mode accounting for is the biggest. (3) The relations of the precipitation in Northeast China and the north Pacific SST anomaly in preceding seasons are not the simple relations of one by one correspondence. Even though the ENSO event, if its heating modes or its developing stages or its allocations with the SST distribution in other sea areas are different, then the summer precipitation in Northeast China probably exhibits the striking difference. Especially the relations of the SST anomaly and the precipitation in the same period are even more complicated. |
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| Keywords: | Northeast China Summer precipitation Sea surface temperature anomaly singular value decomposition (SVD) |
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