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AREM及其对2003年汛期降水的模拟
引用本文:宇如聪,徐幼平.AREM及其对2003年汛期降水的模拟[J].气象学报,2004,62(6):715-723.
作者姓名:宇如聪  徐幼平
作者单位:1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,LASG,北京,100029;中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉,430074
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,LASG,北京,100029;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目:我国重大天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究(G1998040906)和我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究(2004CB418300)
摘    要:文中回顾了一个能考虑陡峭复杂地形的有限区域 η坐标数值预报模式 (RegionalEta coordinateModel,简称REM )十几年来的发展和应用过程 ,列举了该模式系统在气象、水文、环境和军事保障等科研和业务单位的主要应用。同时介绍了在此基础上发展升级的暴雨数值预报模式 (AdvancedREM ,简称AREM )。由于 (A)REM抓住了中国区域的地形和天气特点 ,已成为模拟和预报中国天气和环境灾害的重要工具 ,在环境治理、抗洪抢险、防灾减灾以及军事气象保障中发挥了重要作用。通过分析新版本AREM对 2 0 0 3年夏季中国东部区域降水过程的模拟和预报结果 ,反映了AREM对中国东部区域降水的模拟和预报能力 ,再现了 2 0 0 3年夏季中国东部主要降水过程的雨量分布和演变特征。ARM对主要降水区域平均降水量的逐日预报与观测基本一致。它不仅对发生在淮河流域的较大范围的降水预报如此 ,而且对有些受地形强迫影响的局部强降水中心 ,预报结果也与观测基本一致。

关 键 词:AREM  汛期降水  数值模式  复杂地形
收稿时间:2004/4/24 0:00:00
修稿时间:2004年4月24日

AREM AND ITS SIMULATIONS ON THE DAILY RAINFALL IN SUMMER IN 2003
Yu Rucong and Xu Youping.AREM AND ITS SIMULATIONS ON THE DAILY RAINFALL IN SUMMER IN 2003[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2004,62(6):715-723.
Authors:Yu Rucong and Xu Youping
Institution:LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029;Institute of Heavy Rain, China Meteorological Administrator, Wuhan 430074;LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029;Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100039
Abstract:Facing significant effects of the Tibetan Plateau and many other steep mountains on the weather, especially on the precipitation in China, a regional Eta-coodinate model (REM) has been developed since 1980s and the REM has been popularly used not only to the summer precipitation predictions and the heavy rainfall studies but also to related simulation studies in hydrology and environment in China since 1990s. According to distinct atmospheric circulation and complex terrain features in China and learning from the current state-of-arts models, such as, NCEP Eta-model, MM5, ARPS, IAP-model, CMA HLAFS, et al., REM was paid much attention on handling topography, moisture advection and minimizing artificial diffusion. Because of well handling with topography and water vapor trans-portation, the REM has shown its great capabilities in capturing major features of precipitation in the Eastern China, including the distribution of summer rain belt, heavy rainfall intensity and maximum rainfall location. Based on the REM's framework, an advanced REM (AREM) has been developing under cooperation with other institutes in recent years, which includes increasing resolutions in vertical and horizontal and updating physical parameterizations. The horizontal resolution could reach about 18 km. In the vertical, the model could be unevenly divided into 32 layers. The main physical process in AREM consists: (1) explicit prediction scheme in cloud and precipitation; (2) modified Betts convective adjustment scheme; (3) no-local PBL parameterization scheme; (4) a two-step shape-preserving moisture advection scheme. In addition, from REM to AREM, many attentions are paid to the coding standardization and modularization.The preliminary version of AREM has being used to study and predict the heavy rainfalls along the Yangtze River reaches. Real-time used predictions in Hunan, Hubei and Anhui provinces in recent years show the great capabilities of AREM in forecasting the heavy rainfall events over most of China region. Case studies show that the AREM captures reasonable structures and evolutions of the rainfall systems along the Yangtze River. In this study, the capability of the AREM in predicting summer precipitation features over the Eastern China was shown by reproducing the summer rainfall from June 1 to August 30 in 2003. The AREM captures well not only the south-north movement of rain-belt, but also the mean precipitation distribution and rainfall centers, in the summer of 2003. In the final section, the future developments of AREM are discussed. First of all, an advanced data assimilation system will be developed soon. Secondly, a parallel self-nested version of AREM is necessary to run the model in high resolution in reasonable computing time. In addition, it is planned on continually improving the physical processes in radiation and air-land interaction to develop a new regional climate model based on current AREM.
Keywords:AREM  Summer rainfall  Numerical model  Topography and water vapor transportation  
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