| 非定长相关时间序列集内平均序列的摆动异常及其解释 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘洪滨,周江兴.非定长相关时间序列集内平均序列的摆动异常及其解释[J].气象学报,2003,61(4):488-493. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘洪滨 周江兴 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“十五”科技攻关项目(2001BA611B-01)，中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX3-SW-321) |
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| 摘 要： | 文中对多个时间序列的平均序列中常常出现的异常摆动问题进行了探讨。结果表明,给定时间序列集中序列个数的多少会造成其所组成的平均序列的方差的变化,即序列个数越多,平均序列方差越小的可能性就越大,由此定义了方差增长率α。当给定方差增长率限定值α_0并使其满足α≤α_0时,可以得到最小序列个数m_0,且α_0越大或序列间平均相关系数越大,所需要的时间序列数越少。这一结果可应用于气候变化研究中有关平均时间序列建立的研究中,亦可运用到其他相关研究领域。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 方差均值 气候变化 |
| 收稿时间： | 3/3/2003 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年3月3日 |
ON THE ABNORMAL SWING OF THE AVERAGED TIME SERIES PRODUCED FROM A NUMBER OF CORRELATED TIME SERIES |
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| Liu Hongbin and Zhou Jiangxing.ON THE ABNORMAL SWING OF THE AVERAGED TIME SERIES PRODUCED FROM A NUMBER OF CORRELATED TIME SERIES[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,61(4):488-493. |
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| Authors: | Liu Hongbin and Zhou Jiangxing |
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| Institution: | National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | In many climatological researches,the averaged time series can be produced from a number of time series to enhance common signals.The abnormal swing always exists in the averaged series,so that the changes of the former part of the series,with less samples,are larger than those of the latter part,with more samples.This phenomenon could be found either in tree ring chronologies produced from tree ring series with different lengths or in the averaged time series of some climatic parameters produced from records of meteorological station network. |
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| Keywords: | Time series Mean variance Climate change |
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