| 近10年来中国主要农业气象灾害监测预警与评估技术研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 王春乙,王石立,霍治国,郭建平,李祎君.近10年来中国主要农业气象灾害监测预警与评估技术研究进展[J].气象学报,2005,63(5):659-671. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王春乙 王石立 霍治国 郭建平 李祎君 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 |
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| 摘 要： | 频繁发生的农业气象灾害制约着我国农业生产的快速、健康发展。农业气象灾害一直是广大气象科技工作者开展的主要研究课题之一。在国家科技攻关等计划的支持下,近10年来农业气象灾害研究取得了许多成果。完善农业气象灾害监测业务和预报服务,构建农业气象灾害风险评估、防御体系是农业气象灾害研究的重点。基于3S技术和地面监测相结合,构建了农业气象灾害动态监测系统,从宏观和微观角度来全面监测农业气象灾害的发生发展;建立和完善了卫星遥感监测系统,开展干旱、洪涝、冷害等灾害的动态监测,逐步建立集3S于一体的高空时空分辨率的灾害监测预警系统。农业气象灾害预警研究主要包括:数理统计预报方法进一步发展,农业气象模式与气候模式结合的初步尝试,GIS和网络等高技术在农业气象灾害预警中的应用,省级农业气象灾害预测系统的研制。我国农业气象灾害风险(影响)评估的研究,大致可以2001年为界分为二个阶段。第一阶段,以灾害风险分析技术方法探索研究为主的起步阶段,第二阶段,以灾害影响平度的风险化、数量化技术方法为主的研究发展阶段,构建灾害风险分析、跟踪评估、灾后评估、应变对策的技术体系;具体研究包括农业气象灾害风险分析、风险评估、风险区划和基于遥感监测信息的农业干旱评估。近年来我国农业气象灾害防御研究主要是将高效利用农业气候资源的主动防御技术和开发防灾制剂的被动防御技术相结合,在防御农业干旱和低温冷害方面取得了良好效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 农业气象灾害 监测 预警 评估 防御。 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005/5/27 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年5月27日 |
PROGRESS IN RESEARCH OF AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN CHINA IN RECENT DECADE |
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| Wang Chunyi,Wang Shili,Huo Zhiguo,Guo jianping and Li Yijun.PROGRESS IN RESEARCH OF AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS IN CHINA IN RECENT DECADE[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(5):659-671. |
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| Authors: | Wang Chunyi Wang Shili Huo Zhiguo Guo jianping and Li Yijun |
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| Institution: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | Agro-meteorological disasters restrict the fast and healthy development of agricultural production due to their high frequency and severe intensity.Agro-meteorologists in China attached great importance to the research on agro-meteorological disasters.A lot of progress in research on agro-meteorological disasters has been made in past decade supported by national key projects and other program.The emphasis of research on agro-meteorological disasters in China are improving monitoring system and forecast services and building the system of risk assessment and prevention system in recent decade.Based on 3s technology and surface observation,the dynamic monitoring system of agro-meteorological disasters was built to monitor the emergence and development of agro-meteorological disasters the year round.Satellite remote sensing monitoring system was built and improved.The dynamic monitoring of Agro-meteorological disasters,such as drought,flood and cold damage has been carried out.The high altitude temporal and spatial difference prediction system of disaster monitoring was developed step by step,in which RS,GIS and GPS were integrated.The study on agro-meteorological disasters prediction included the further development of mathematic statistical forecast method,the primary study on combining agro-meteorological models with climate models,the application of advanced technology,such as GIS and internet as well as the development of provincial agro-meteorological disasters prediction system.The risk assessment of agro-meteorological disasters has experienced two stages.The first was studying the technical method of disasters risk analysis before 2001and the second was researching the quantitative technical method of risk assessment to build technical system of risk analysis,followed assessment,assessment after disasters and strategies.The main achievement included the study on risk analysis,risk assessment,risk regionalization of assessment agro-meteorological disasters and agricultural drought assessment based on remote sense monitoring information.In recent years,the prevention technique agro-meteorological disasters was studied by combining active prevention techniques of using agro-climate resource effectively and passive techniques of developing prevention medicines in China.The distinct achievement in study on agricultural drought and cold damage prevention techniques was build. |
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| Keywords: | Agro-meteorological disasters Monitoring Prediction Assessment Defenses |
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