| 依据月平均资料作月预报——利用自然相似的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 邱崇践,丑纪范,杨大伟.依据月平均资料作月预报——利用自然相似的探讨[J].气象学报,1986,44(2):184-191. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邱崇践 丑纪范 杨大伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学
(邱崇践，丑纪范)，甘肃省计委计算站(杨大伟) |
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| 基金项目： | 国家气象局资助的动力统计长期数值预报研究课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用1956年1月—1972年12月的月平均1000,500,100 hPa位势高度和太平洋、大西洋、印度洋的海表温度资料中存在的自然相似,对依据月平均资料作的海洋—大气变量月平均值的预报可能达到的水平进行了分析研究。结果表明在一个海—气耦合系统中,大气变量的预报是比海温预报更为困难的一环。根据月平均海表温度决定相应的月平均位势高度场的准确度较低,但在考虑了过去的海温和高度场资料后能有所改进。
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| 收稿时间： | 1984/9/12 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1984/12/11 0:00:00 |
PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES:A NATURALLY OCCURING ANALOGUES STUDY |
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| Qiu Chongjian,Chou Jifan and Yang Dawei.PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES:A NATURALLY OCCURING ANALOGUES STUDY[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1986,44(2):184-191. |
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| Authors: | Qiu Chongjian Chou Jifan and Yang Dawei |
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| Institution: | Lanzhou University;Lanzhou University;Gaesu Computing Station |
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| Abstract: | Naturally occuring analogues in the monthly averaged date of 1000, 500,100hPa height and sea-surface temperature(SST) in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean during the period Januarys 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of monthly mean forecast of Ocean/atmosphere variables. It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST. It is also found that the predictability level of geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly SST appear relatively poor, but it can be improved by useing past observational date of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields. |
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