| 气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM2.5浓度模拟的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋佳琨,陈耀登,陈丹.气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM2.5浓度模拟的影响研究[J].气象学报,2021,79(3):477-491. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋佳琨 陈耀登 陈丹 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心，南京，210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划项目（2017YFC1501406） |
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| 摘 要： | 相比冬季大范围静稳条件下的污染堆积过程，秋季气象条件更加复杂和局地化，气象条件模拟不确定性给秋季气溶胶模拟带来了更大难度，且目前研究较少考虑气象-气溶胶因素在线模拟和联合同化。使用WRF/Chem模式和格点统计差值（GSI）三维变分同化系统，2015年10月进行了为期1个月的气象-气溶胶资料联合同化及模拟试验，并基于此讨论了气象-气溶胶资料联合同化对秋季PM2.5浓度模拟的影响。结果表明，WRF/Chem模式可以模拟出秋季污染天气过程，但对华北平原和中东部地区存在高估、西北部存在低估现象；同化地面PM2.5浓度观测资料可以改进对PM2.5浓度的模拟，上述两个地区的偏差均得到订正，6 h预报偏差均降低至6 μg/m3以内；重点针对华北地区的分析表明，秋季PM2.5污染过程与特殊气象条件（湿度升高、风场辐合、区域输送）密切相关，因此在地面PM2.5观测资料同化基础上增加常规气象资料同化，能进一步提高对华北平原气象-污染过程的表达，PM2.5浓度预报相关系数从0.86提高至0.89。气象-气溶胶联合资料同化能更加准确地模拟秋季气溶胶污染过程，为更好地开展污染成因和在气象预报框架下开展气象-气溶胶相互影响研究提供了基础。
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| 关 键 词： | WRF/Chem 格点统计差值（GSI） PM2.5 气象-气溶胶联合资料同化 气象条件 华北平原 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/10/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/2/26 0:00:00 |
A study of meteorology-aerosol joint data assimilation on autumn PM2.5 concentration simulation |
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| SONG Jiakun,CHEN Yaodeng,CHEN Dan.A study of meteorology-aerosol joint data assimilation on autumn PM2.5 concentration simulation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2021,79(3):477-491. |
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| Authors: | SONG Jiakun CHEN Yaodeng CHEN Dan |
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| Institution: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster，Ministry of Education/International Joint Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters，Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing 210044，China2.Beijing Institute of Urban Meteorology，Beijing 100089，China |
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| Abstract: | Compared with the pollution accumulation process under stable condition in winter, the autumn meteorological conditions are more complex and local. The uncertainty of the meteorological condition simulation brings greater difficulty to the autumn aerosol simulation, and the online meteorology-aerosol joint assimilation are rarely considered in current model simulations. The WRF/Chem model and GSI three-dimensional variational data assimilation system were used to carry out 4 groups of simulation and assimilation experiments (in 6 h cycle frequency) for October 2015, and the influences of meteorology-aerosol joint data assimilation on autumn aerosol simulation were discussed. Results show that the WRF/Chem could simulate the regional air pollution events in autumn in China, but there existed overestimates/underestimates in the Middle East/Northwest China. Assimilation of PM2.5 observations improved the simulation results, and the 6 h forecast deviation was reduced to less than 6 μg/m3. For the North China Plain, PM2.5 pollution in autumn was closely related to special meteorological conditions, e.g. high humidity, convergence of wind field, and regional transport. Therefore, the assimilation of conventional meteorological data in addition to surface PM2.5 assimilation better captured the meteorology-pollution process and the correlation coefficient of PM2.5 concentration forecast was increased from 0.86 to 0.89. Joint meteorology-aerosol data assimilation can help to more accurately simulate autumn aerosol pollution process in China, and thus can better serve scientific researches on pollution mechanism and meteorology-aerosol interaction under the framework of meteorological forecast. |
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| Keywords: | WRF/Chem GSI PM2 5 Meteorology-aerosol joint data assimilation Meteorology condition North China Plain |
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