| 全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 林美静,范可,王会军.全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究[J].气象学报,2008,66(5):756-764. |
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| 作者姓名： | 林美静 范可 王会军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢 南森国际中心，北京，100029
2. 中国科学院研究生院，北京，100039;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢 南森国际中心，北京，100029;中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢 南森国际中心，北京，100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 973 国家重点基础研究发展计划，中国科学院优秀论文博士基金;国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 索马里急流的变化对亚洲季风和气候变动具有重要的影响,未来索马里急流到底会如何演变?如何受全球变暖的影响?针对这个问题,文中利用IPCC第四次评估报告(IPCC AR4)的多个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估了多个模式在当前气候(20C3M)条件下对夏季低空索马里急流的模拟能力;预估模式在SRESA2排放情景下对21世纪(2010-2099)的索马里急流变化.研究结果表明,18个模式在现代气候条件下对索马里急流有较好的模拟能力;18个模式的集合平均结果预测夏季索马里低空急流在21世纪的变化过程是:初期(2010-2040)增强至减弱,中期(2050-2060)增加至最强,末期(2070-2090)减至最弱.与现代气候条件模拟结果相比,夏季索马里低空急流在未来气候变暖背景条件下是趋于减弱的过程,在21世纪末期最弱.研究还表明了夏季低空索马里急流的变化幅度与全球平均气温的变化幅度是一个非线性的关系,各模式对二者关系的描述存在不确定性,鉴于索马里急流对印度季风和东亚季风及中国气候的重要性,索马里急流的变化规律和未来演变是科学界特别需要深入研究的问题.
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| 关 键 词： | IPCCAR4模式 索马里越赤道气流 未来气候 评估和预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/5/2008 12:00:00 AM |
Somali Jet changes under the global warming |
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| LIN Meijing,FAN Ke,WANG Huijun.Somali Jet changes under the global warming[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2008,66(5):756-764. |
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| Authors: | LIN Meijing FAN Ke WANG Huijun |
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| Abstract: | Somali Jet changes will lead to the variability of Asia monsoon and climate. What would be the changes of Somali Jet and its response to the global warming in the future climate? To focus on the questions, we first valuate the ability of IPCC AR4 climate models for the 20th century experiment (20C3M) to reproduce the observed features of the low level Somali Jet in JJA (June-July-August) in terms of climatology for the period 1976-1999. Then, we discuss its changes under the climate changes of scenarios A2 for the period 2010-2099. The results show that 18 IPCC AR4 models have reasonable capabilities to describe the climatologically features of Somali Jet in the present climate simulation. The analysis of intensity of Somali Jet changes from the multi-model ensemble results for the period 2010-2099 are mainly characterized by: the weakened Somali Jet in the early 21st century (2010-2040), the enhanced (strongest) Somali Jet in the middle 21st century (2050-2060) as well as the weakest Somali Jet in the end of 21st century (2070-2090). Compared with the period 1976-1999, the intensity of Somali Jet in the 21st century is weakening in general and become weakest at the end of the 21st century. The results also suggest that relationship between the increment of intensity of Somali Jet in JJA and the increment of global mean surface air temperature is nonlinear, which is described differently among the models, suggesting the uncertainty of the IPCC AR4 models. Considering the important role of Somali Jet in the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon and climate in China, especially, the variability of Somali Jet and its evolvement under the present climate or in the future climate changes should be further emphasized. |
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