| 中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估 |
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| 引用本文： | 周天军,陈梓明,邹立维,陈晓龙,俞永强,王斌,包庆,鲍颖,曹剑,何编,胡帅,李立娟,李建,林岩銮,马利斌,乔方利,容新尧,宋振亚,唐彦丽,吴波,吴统文,辛晓歌,张贺,张明华.中国地球气候系统模式的发展及其模拟和预估[J].气象学报,2020,78(3):332-350. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周天军 陈梓明 邹立维 陈晓龙 俞永强 王斌 包庆 鲍颖 曹剑 何编 胡帅 李立娟 李建 林岩銮 马利斌 乔方利 容新尧 宋振亚 唐彦丽 吴波 吴统文 辛晓歌 张贺 张明华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京，100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院“国际伙伴计划—国际大科学计划培育专项”（134111KYSB20160031）、国家自然科学基金项目（41875132） |
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| 摘 要： | 地球气候系统模式是开展多学科、多圈层集成研究的重要平台，其发展是国际地学领域特别是全球变化领域竞争的前沿。中国的地球气候系统模式研发工作始于20世纪80年代，最近10年得到快速发展。研发格局上已经形成中国科学院、有关部委和高校三足鼎立的局面。文中在简要回顾中国地球气候系统模式早期发展历史的基础上，总结了中国参加第6次耦合模式比较计划的9个地球气候系统模式的技术特点，初步评估了中国4个模式对全球和东亚气候模拟的基本性能，分析了其在4种共享社会经济路径情景下对全球降水与温度的预估变化及其与平衡态气候敏感度的联系。最后，结合国际态势，从发展的角度提出未来中国气候模式研发工作需要加强的8个方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 中国地球气候系统模式 耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6） 模拟性能 气候预测与预估 未来展望 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/9/20 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/1/19 0:00:00 |
Development of climate and earth system models in China: Past achievements and new CMIP6 fesults |
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| ZHOU Tianjun,CHEN Ziming,ZOU Liwei,CHEN Xiaolong,YU Yongqiang,WANG Bin,BAO Qing,BAO Ying,CAO Jian,HE Bian,HU Shuai,LI Lijuan,LI Jian,LIN Yanluan,MA Libin,QIAO Fangli,RONG Xinyao,SONG Zheny,TANG Yanli,WU Bo,WU Tongwen,XIN Xiaoge,ZHANG He and ZHANG Minghua.Development of climate and earth system models in China: Past achievements and new CMIP6 fesults[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2020,78(3):332-350. |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Tianjun CHEN Ziming ZOU Liwei CHEN Xiaolong YU Yongqiang WANG Bin BAO Qing BAO Ying CAO Jian HE Bian HU Shuai LI Lijuan LI Jian LIN Yanluan MA Libin QIAO Fangli RONG Xinyao SONG Zheny TANG Yanli WU Bo WU Tongwen XIN Xiaoge ZHANG He and ZHANG Minghua |
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| Abstract: | The Earth-climate system model (ECSM) is an important platform for multi-disciplinary and multi-sphere integration research, and its development is at the frontier of international geosciences, especially in the field of global change study. The research and development (R&D) of ECSM in China began in the 1980s and great progress has been achieved in the past 10 years. In China, ECSMs are now mainly developed at the Chinese Academy of Sciences ,various ministries and universities; thus, a tripartite situation has formed regarding the model development. Following a brief review of the development history of ECSMs in China, this paper summarizes the technical characteristics of the nine Chinese ECSMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and preliminarily assesses the basic performances of four Chinese models in global climate simulation and climate simulation in East Asia. The projected changes in global precipitation and temperature and associated relationship with the equilibrium climate sensitivity under four shared socioeconomic path scenarios are also discussed. Finally, combined with the international situation and from the perspective of model development, eight directions are proposed for the future development of Chinese ECSMs. |
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| Keywords: | Chinese Earth-climate system models Coupled model inter-comparison project phase 6 Model performance Climate prediction and projection Outlook |
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