| 气候系统可预报性的全局研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 范新岗,张红亮,丑纪范.气候系统可预报性的全局研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(2):190-197. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范新岗 张红亮 丑纪范 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州大学大气科学系 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家基础性重大关键项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式，引入胞映射全局分析方法，对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限，对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报，用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性，并得到了定量的结果。研究表明，耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用，观测精度的提高亦可延长可预报期限
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| 关 键 词： | 胞映射方法，气候系统，可预报期限 |
| 收稿时间： | 1997/7/11 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1997/11/24 0:00:00 |
GLOBAL STUDY ON CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY |
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| Fan Xingang,Zhang Hongliang and Chou Jifan.GLOBAL STUDY ON CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(2):190-197. |
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| Authors: | Fan Xingang Zhang Hongliang and Chou Jifan |
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| Institution: | Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000;Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000 |
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| Abstract: | Cell to cell mapping method is a powerful tool for globally analyzing into nonlinear system. By introducing the cell to cell mapping method, the predictability of climate in a most simplified air sea coupled model is studied in this paper. It is indicated that there exists a maximum predictability limit in climate prediction. For the prediction beyond the daily predictability limit, it is proved by using simple cell to cell mapping idea that mean value is predictable, and the quantitative result is obtained. The study also shows that both coupling mechanism and improvement of observational error prolongs the maximum predictability limit. |
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| Keywords: | Cell to cell mapping method Climate system Predictability limit |
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