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| 定性和定量长期预报模型的综合分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 金龙,苗春生,陈宁,罗莹.定性和定量长期预报模型的综合分析[J].气象学报,2000,58(4):479-484. |
| 作者姓名： | 金龙 苗春生 陈宁 罗莹 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省气象科学研究所,南京,210008 2. 南京气象学院,南京,210044 3. 江苏省气候应用所,南京,210009 |
| 基金项目： | 中国气象局“九五”课题 |
| 摘 要： | 根据相同的 50 0 h Pa和海温场预报因子 ,利用神经网络灵活可变的拓朴结构 ,分别构造了定性和定量的降水长期预报模型。并在同等条件下 ,建立了逐步回归预报方程。通过对比分析表明 ,这种定性和定量相结合的神经网络综合预报分析方法 ,是增强预报结果可靠性和稳定性的一种有效途径。该预报建模方法具有比较合理的分析依据 ,值得进一步探索、应用。 |
| 关 键 词： | 综合分析 神经网络 定性 定量 |
| 收稿时间： | 1998/9/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999/3/24 0:00:00 |
COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS ON QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE MODEL OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING |
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| Jin Long,Miao Chunsheng,Chen Ning and Luo Ying.COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS ON QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE MODEL OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2000,58(4):479-484. | |
| Authors: | Jin Long Miao Chunsheng Chen Ning and Luo Ying |
| Abstract: | WT5BZ] In terms of the same predictors of previous monthly mean 500 hPa height and sea surface temperature, a qualitative and quantitative models of long term forecasting of rainfall over Changjiang Huaihe Valley are constructed aid of the variable topological structure of neural network. A stepwise regression model is established using same predictors. The contrast analysis shows the comprehensive forecast method of the qualitative and quantitative is superior in improving predictive accuracy and stability. This shows great promise in the research of precipitation prediction on long range basis due mainly to the reasonable analysis for prediction method and prodictors. |
| Keywords: | Comprehensive analysis Neural network Qualitative Quantitative |
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