| 中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 景丞,姜彤,王艳君,陈静,蹇东南,罗岚心,苏布达.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究[J].气象学报,2016,74(4):572-582. |
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| 作者姓名： | 景丞 姜彤 王艳君 陈静 蹇东南 罗岚心 苏布达 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/地理与遥感学院, 南京, 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 全球变化研究国家重大科学计划项目（2012CB955903）、新疆维吾尔自治区高层次引进人才项目（Y642091001）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于中国1960-2014年771个气象站的逐日降水资料，选取有效降水序列95百分位数作为极端降水阈值，将既定持续时间尺度和连续面积上超过阈值的降水事件定义为区域性极端降水事件。采用强度-面积-持续时间（Intensity-Area-Duration，IAD）法，根据极端降水事件空间和时间上的连续性特征，对不同持续时间的区域性极端降水事件演变趋势及暴露于极端降水事件下的人口和国内生产总值进行研究。结果表明:（1）相对强度最大的区域性极端降水事件主要集中在1960-1968、1991-1999和2006-2013年3个时段；（2）区域性极端降水事件最强中心主要分布在长江以南和东北地区，发生在北方的多为单日极端降水，南方多为持续多日的极端降水；（3）1960-2014年区域性极端降水事件影响面积有所增大，相对强度变化不明显；（4）暴露于极端降水事件影响区域内的人口和国内生产总值均呈显著增大趋势，暴露人口最多的年份在1983年，达到2408万人/d，暴露国内生产总值最多的年份在1998年，达到20亿元/d。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域性极端降水事件 IAD分析 人口和经济 暴露度 中国 |
| 收稿时间： | 2015/12/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 4/2/2016 12:00:00 AM |
A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China |
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| JING Cheng,JIANG Tong,WANG Yanjun,CHEN Jing,JIAN Dongnan,LUO Lanxin and SU Buda.A study on regional extreme precipitation events and the exposure of population and economy in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2016,74(4):572-582. |
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| Authors: | JING Cheng JIANG Tong WANG Yanjun CHEN Jing JIAN Dongnan LUO Lanxin and SU Buda |
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| Institution: | Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China,State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on daily precipitation data (1960-2014) collected at 771 meteorological stations over China，the 95th percentile of effective precipitation is selected to be the extreme precipitation threshold. A regional precipitation event is identified to be an extreme precipitation event if it exceeds the threshold over a continuous area at a given time scale. By taking into account the spatial and temporal continuity characteristics of extreme precipitation events，the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method is applied to study the feature of regional extreme precipitation event at different durations and the population/GDP exposed to extreme precipitation events. The research results show that: (1) regional extreme precipitation events with maximum relative intensity mainly occurred in three periods:1960-1968,1991-1999 and 2006-2013; (2) the centers of extreme precipitation events are largely distributed in Northeast China and to the south of the Yangtze River，while single-day extreme precipitation events mainly occurred in the northern region and multi-day extreme precipitation events mostly occurred in the southern region; (3) the areal coverage of extreme precipitation events has increased significantly during 1960-2014，but no obvious change can be detected for the relative intensity of extreme events; (4) the population and GDP exposed to extreme precipitation events have shown a significant increasing trend. The population exposed to extreme precipitation events reached 24.08 million people/d in 1983, and the GDP exposed to extreme events reached 2 billion yuan/d in 1998. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme precipitation events IAD method Population and economy Exposure China |
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