| 北京地区气溶胶PM2.5粒子浓度的相关因子及其估算模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 周丽,徐祥德,丁国安,苗秋菊,魏凤英.北京地区气溶胶PM2.5粒子浓度的相关因子及其估算模型[J].气象学报,2003,61(6):761-768. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周丽 徐祥德 丁国安 苗秋菊 魏凤英 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学院,北京,100081;南京气象学院,南京,210044
2. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 :首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理与调控原理 (项目编号 :G19990 45 70 0 ) |
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| 摘 要： | 文中运用统计分析和气象统计预报的方法 ,使用北京白石桥小区的污染物观测资料和同期北京地区的气象观测资料 ,对影响大气污染的气象因子进行了综合分析 ,并分别建立了气溶胶PM 2 .5粒子浓度与气体污染物、气象要素场的两类统计相关拟合模型。发现气溶胶PM2 .5粒子浓度与气体污染物浓度存在不同程度的相关性 ,且与气象条件亦存在显著的相关关系 ,此类时空变化及其量化估算模型具有一定实际应用价值。通过确定气象要素场和气溶胶浓度的关系可进一步研究不同地区的污染物输送和污染源扩散影响的问题。
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| 关 键 词： | 气溶胶 PM2.5粒子 逐步回归模型 拟合 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003/5/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年5月22日 |
THE CORRELATION FACTORS AND POLLUTION FORECAST MODEL FOR PM2.5 CONCENTRATION IN BEIJING AREA |
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| Zhou Li,Xu Xiangde,Ding Guoan,Miao Qiuju and Wei Fengying.THE CORRELATION FACTORS AND POLLUTION FORECAST MODEL FOR PM2.5 CONCENTRATION IN BEIJING AREA[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2003,61(6):761-768. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Li Xu Xiangde Ding Guoan Miao Qiuju and Wei Fengying |
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| Institution: | Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing 100081;Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044;Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044;Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044;Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, 210044 |
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| Abstract: | The meteorological influencing factors on pollutions are analyzed by means of pollution data observed in Baishiqiao(Beijing) and meteorological data in Beijing ambient areas. The relationship between PM2.5 concentration and air pollutants are explored in terms of successive regression method. The same method is used to investigate the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and meteorological factors. Positive correlation exists in PM2.5 and SO2, NOx and negative correlation exists in PM2.5 and O3. The analysis results indicate that SO2 and NOx concentration basically fit the variety of PM2.5 concentration. The relationship between PM2.5 and air pollutants indicates regional pollution characteristics in Beijing area. In addition, notabile correlation exists in PM2.5 in Beijing and wind in southern Beijing areas. The different selec of meteorological factors in successive regression method indicate the transportation of pollutants and diffusion of pollution source in different areas. According to the analysis of weather situation, the heavy pollution in Beijing happened in the rear of high pressure or in the front of low pressure. In these periods, southerlies are strong in Beijing and ambient areas. That meansy Beijing and ambient areas just located downwind of pollution sources in the southern of Beijing. Moreover, the high mountains are located to the western, northern and eastern of the Beijing and plain are located to the southern of Beijing, on which the heavy pollution sources are situated. Terrain and distribution of pollution sources make the relationship between air pressure and PM2.5 in Beijing. Wind and air pressure basically fit the diversification of PM2.5 using successive regression method. |
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| Keywords: | Aerosol PM2 5 Successive regression model Fitting |
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