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| 中国雨季的一种客观定量划分 | |
| 引用本文： | 黄琰,张人禾,龚志强,冯爱霞.中国雨季的一种客观定量划分[J].气象学报,2014,72(6):1186-1204. |
| 作者姓名： | 黄琰 张人禾 龚志强 冯爱霞 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象科学研究院，北京，100081 2. 国家气候中心，北京，100081 3. 国家气象信息中心资料服务室，北京，100081 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(41221064、41205040、41105055)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金(GYHY201306004). |
| 摘 要： | 从客观分析角度出发，利用有序样本最优分割法对中国610个台站的气候平均（1961—2010年）候降水序列进行有序分割，给出中国不同区域的雨季定量划分。根据中国13个区域候降水量的气候平均值分布特征，并基于有序样本最优分割法的划分结果需同时满足分割段内波动小、段间差异大的要求，确定了各区域的合理分割数，通过制定3种雨季划分方案，对中国区域雨季进行了细致的定量划分。第1种方案将全年降水划分为雨季和旱季，结果表明，雨、旱两季差异明显的地区出现在华南西部沿海和新疆邻近区域；第2种方案将全年降水划分为雨季相对干期、雨季相对湿期和旱季3个降水阶段，这种特征出现的区域为华南大部分地区、江南地区、长江中下游地区、西南地区东部和南部，以及西北地区中东部；第3种方案将全年降水划分为春雨季、主雨季、秋雨季和旱季，出现这种特征的区域为长三角及淮河流域、黄淮和华北地区、东北地区、西北地区中部、内蒙古地区西部、青藏高原中东部及其以东地区。与已有的中国不同区域降水特征研究结果的比较表明，有序样本最优分割法不仅对中国雨季的划分客观有效，且其划分结果合理并具有明确的气象意义。 |
| 关 键 词： | 有序样本最优分割法 客观定量分析 雨季划分 合理分割数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013/12/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/5/22 0:00:00 |
An objectively quantitative division for rainy seasons in China |
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| HUANG Yan,ZHANG Renhe,GONG Zhiqiang and FENG Aixia.An objectively quantitative division for rainy seasons in China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2014,72(6):1186-1204. | |
| Authors: | HUANG Yan ZHANG Renhe GONG Zhiqiang and FENG Aixia |
| Institution: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China,National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China and Data service office, National Meteorological Information Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the data objective analysis, in this study, the optimal segmentation method (OSM) is used for quantitative division of the climatic normal series of pentad rainfall in the 610 meteorological stations over China. According to the climatic characteristics of pentad rainfall over China, three rainy-season division schemes are made for the yearly pentad rainfall series which would be simultaneously satisfied with the minimum variances in the same phase and the maximum differences among phases: one includes rainy and dry seasons; another one contains the relatively wet and relatively dry seasons in a rainy season, and the dry season. The third one consists of the spring rainy season, main rainy season, autumn rainy season and dry season, and is applied for the regions with single or three peeks in their pentad rainfall series. It demonstrates the objectivity and effectiveness of OSM for rainy season division in China; and the rainfall phases divided by OSM are rational and of meteorological interpretations. |
| Keywords: | Optimal segmentation method of ordered sample Objectively quantitative analysis Rainy season divisions Reasonable number of rainy seasons segmentation |
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