| 全球海气耦合模式（BCC_CM1.0）对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 司东,丁一汇,柳艳菊.全球海气耦合模式（BCC_CM1.0）对江淮梅雨降水预报的检验[J].气象学报,2009,67(6):947-960. |
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| 作者姓名： | 司东 丁一汇 柳艳菊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京,210044;国家气候中心,北京,100081
2. 国家气候中心,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划"灾害天气精细数值预报系统及短期气候集合预测研究"项目，"973"计划，国家科技支撑计划"全球环境变化应对技术研究与示范"项目01课题"气候变化的检测和预估技术研究" |
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| 摘 要： | 以国家气候中心全球大气-海洋耦合模式(BCC-CM1.0)20年的预报产品为基础,重点分析了该模式对中国江淮梅雨的预报能力以及梅雨预报中存在误差的可能原因.试验表明:BCC-CM1.0对江淮梅雨降水有一定的预报能力,模式基本上能够预报出气候态下梅雨降水的空间分布特征.尽管其方差贡献率和时间系数与观测相比有偏差,但模式还是能够预报出梅雨降水的主要模态.气候平均下,BCC-CM1.0模式预报的梅雨雨带位置偏北,因而预报的江淮流域长江以北降水偏多,而长江以南预报的降水偏少.同时发现模式对江淮流域梅雨期中等强度降水预报较好,雨强概率分布与观测结果基本一致,而对大雨强降水和小雨强降水预报相对较差.合成分析发现,江淮流域雨带偏北、降水偏少时,模式的预报能力较好;而江淮流域雨带偏南、降水偏多时,模式预报能力相对较差.BCC-CM1.0对高度场的预报普遍偏低,尤其是在青藏高原上空有一个虚假的低值中心,对副热带高压的预报也偏弱,这样使得东亚季风区气压梯度增加,从而导致预报的东亚夏季风偏强、向北推进的幅度加大,最终致使预报的梅雨雨带偏北.此外,比湿场预报的偏差也可能是造成梅雨雨带偏北的原因之一.
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| 关 键 词： | 全球 海气耦合模式 江淮梅雨 降雨预报 大气环流 |
| 收稿时间： | 2008/9/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008/11/11 0:00:00 |
Evaluation of Meiyu prediction in the Yangtze-Huaihe region by coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (BCC_CM1.0) |
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| SI Dong,DING Yihui and LIU Yanju.Evaluation of Meiyu prediction in the Yangtze-Huaihe region by coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (BCC_CM1.0)[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,67(6):947-960. |
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| Authors: | SI Dong DING Yihui and LIU Yanju |
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| Institution: | College of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China,National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China and National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the output data of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (BCC-CM1.0) of National Climate Center, the meiyu in the Yangtze-Huaihe region ensemble prediction experiment is performed to verify the prediction ability of the BCC-CM1.0 from 1978 - 2006. The results show that BCC- CM1.0 can predict the basic meiyu spatial pattern and the leading EOF mode. The predicted rain belt is obviously north than the observation, so it causes more precipitation to the north of the Yangtze River and predicts less precipitation to the south of the Yangtze River. Additionally, it shows that the medium intensity meiyu rainfall has been forecasted better than the high and low intensity rainfall. Synthetic analysis shows that BCC-CM1.0 can forecast the difference of meiyu rainfall between meiyu forecasting good years and meiyu forecasting poor years, it has good performance when rain belt locates north and meiyu rainfall less; otherwise the model performs poorly.Geopotential height field forecasted by BCC_CM1.0 is substantially weaker than the observation, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Western Pacific Subtropical High region, which causes barometric gradient over East Asian monsoon areas increasing and East Asian monsoon enhancing, therefore, enhanced East Asian monsoon maybe one reason that results in moving northward of rain belt in Yangtze-Huaihe area in BCC- CM1.0. Furthermore, poor forecasting of moisture content may also contribute to moving northward of rain belt in the Yangtze-Huaihe region. |
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| Keywords: | Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model Meiyu Rainfall prediction Atmospheric circulation |
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