| 基于频谱补偿和数值模拟技术的江苏近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 常蕊,朱蓉,尹宜舟,马文通,章大全.基于频谱补偿和数值模拟技术的江苏近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速研究[J].气象学报,2019,77(5):938-948. |
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| 作者姓名： | 常蕊 朱蓉 尹宜舟 马文通 章大全 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.国家气候中心, 北京, 100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41605086）、国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFB1501100）。 |
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| 摘 要： | 在平均风速基本满足近海风力发电需求的前提下，近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速的合理估算成为中国海上风电开发领域的研究热点。与低纬度海域台风极端风速的广泛研究不同，由于缺乏有效的技术手段，对于台风影响相对较少的中纬度海域，极端风速的科学认识明显不足。研究以江苏近海为例，通过频谱分析技术，定量刻画了数值模拟风速能谱在高频波段的能量衰减和截断特征；进而利用风速能谱曲线在频率域的积分及其在高频波段的补偿，实现无观测区域年最大风速的估算。与台风风场数值模拟技术相结合，综合考虑了中国中纬度海域受寒潮大风和热带气旋大风影响的复杂、特有气候特征，建立了一套可推广应用的近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速估算的新方法。据此推算了江苏近海100 m高度处50年一遇的极端风速。结果表明:受寒潮大风影响，江苏北部海域的50年一遇风速超过40 m/s；少量北上的热带气旋则造成响水和如东附近海域40 m/s，甚至44 m/s以上的50年一遇风速；中部盐城附近海域的50年一遇风速则普遍低于35 m/s。研究成果不仅为该海域近海海洋工程的开发设计及安全运行提供重要的科学支撑，同时也有助于加深对中国极端气候事件的科学认识和大气边界层科学理论的发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 近海风能资源 频谱分析 数值模拟 极端风速 大气边界层 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/1/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/5/17 0:00:00 |
Estimation of offshore extreme winds at 100 m over Jiangsu province based on spectral correction and numerical simulation |
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| CHANG Rui,ZHU Rong,YIN Yizhou,MA Wentong and ZHANG Daquan.Estimation of offshore extreme winds at 100 m over Jiangsu province based on spectral correction and numerical simulation[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2019,77(5):938-948. |
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| Authors: | CHANG Rui ZHU Rong YIN Yizhou MA Wentong and ZHANG Daquan |
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| Institution: | 1.National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China2.China Power Investment Power Engineering Co, Ltd, Shanghai 200233, China |
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| Abstract: | Offshore wind energy development and utilization play an important role in haze governance and fulfilling the reduction commitments in advance. The reserve estimation of offshore wind resource in China is abundant enough to meet basic needs for the exploitation of wind power. Recently, more and more attention is paid on accurate estimation of offshore extreme winds, which impose important impacts on wind turbine design and operation. Different from numerous studies of typhoon extreme winds, the study of offshore extreme winds over the mid-high latitudes is significantly deficient due to the lack of effective methods, which is also a key area for the exploitation of wind power. Therefore, based on numerical modeling and spectrum analysis, the present study develops a practical, reliable and robust method for the estimation of 50 year extreme winds. This method can be applied to various mid-latitude offshore areas in China. Taking into account the complicated climatic characteristics of China''s mid-latitude offshore areas affected by high-latitude cold winter winds and tropical cyclones, the 50 year return wind speeds at 100 m height over the offshore area of Jiangsu are estimated using this new method. It is shown that:(1) affected by strong cold winter winds, the 50 year return wind speed in the northern part of Jiangsu offshore area exceeds 40 m/s; (2) the 50 year return wind speed of 40 m/s (or even 44 m/s) near Xiangshui and Rudong is related to limited typhoon activities; and (3) the 50 year return wind speed over the central Jiangsu offshore area is generally lower than 35 m/s. This study not only provides a scientific basis for the design and operation of offshore engineering, such as offshore wind farms, but also contributes to further in-depth understanding of extreme climate events in China as well as the development of atmospheric boundary layer theory. |
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| Keywords: | Offshore wind energy assessment Spectral correction Numerical simulation Extreme wind Atmospheric boundary layer |
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