| 下投探空资料在台风莫拉克路径预报的应用试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 张诚忠,万齐林,丁伟钰,陈子通,黄燕燕.下投探空资料在台风莫拉克路径预报的应用试验[J].气象学报,2012,70(1):30-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张诚忠 万齐林 丁伟钰 陈子通 黄燕燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州,510080 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200706014、GYHY291996016);国家自然科学基金项目(41075040、40775058、41075083) |
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| 摘 要： | 2009年8月7日中国大陆举行了首次利用机载下投式探空仪观测台风的试验,飞机在台风莫拉克与天鹅之间的云带相对稀薄区释放11个下投式探空仪。基于下投探空观测资料、常规探空资料和1°×1°分辨率的NCEP再分析资料,分析下投探空资料的可用性,并以下投探空资料初步分析了两台风间南海上空的风场、湿度场等大气特性;分别进行了有无以同化下投探空为初始场的GRAPES模式的模拟试验,以了解下投探空资料对台风莫拉克预报的影响作用。初步结论表明,台风天鹅与莫拉克之间的南海上空对流层中低层为深厚的西南气流,对流层低层及高层湿度小,中间层大;同化下投探空资料后,观测地区(下投探空点及其附近)800 hPa以下西南风减弱,以上加强,湿度中低层减小;有无同化下投探空资料的初值场差异随模式积分向下游传播,影响台风的环境场,改变了台风的引导气流:同化后500 hPa台风引导气流偏东、偏北分量加强,使台风的路径更接近实况路径,48 h台风路径预报误差比原来减少18%。
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| 关 键 词： | 下投探空资料 同化试验 台风路径预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/7/2010 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2011/3/27 0:00:00 |
An experiment in application of the dropsonde data to forecasting the track of Typhoon Morakot |
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| ZHANG Chengzhong,WAN Qilin,DING Weiyu,CHEN Zitong and HUANG Yanyan.An experiment in application of the dropsonde data to forecasting the track of Typhoon Morakot[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2012,70(1):30-38. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chengzhong WAN Qilin DING Weiyu CHEN Zitong and HUANG Yanyan |
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| Institution: | .Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,CMA,Guangzhou 510080,China |
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| Abstract: | The experiment deploying dropsonde was,for the first time in mainland China,launched on 7 August 2009 over the South China Sea.Eleven dropsondes are released when the aircraft flied across the relatively thin cloud zone between Typhoon Morakot and the tropical depression Goni.Based on the dropsonde data taken from this experiment,the reliability of dropsonde data is tested,then a preliminary analysis is done on the characteristics of atmosphere such as the wind field and humidity field over the South China Sea.The feature of wind profile in the southwestern part of Morakot is revealed as a deep layer of southwestern airflow from low to middle level of the troposphere,whereas the feature of the humidity field exhibits both relatively low humidity at the lower and upper level of the troposphere,and relatively moist at the middle level.To investigate the impact of the dropsonde data upon the typhoon’s track forecast,two experiments are designed.One experiment with the initial condition obtained with the assimilation of dropsonde data(the assimilation experiment) and the other without it(the control experiment),are run for 72 hours by using the GRAPES model,respectively.The results are shown as follows.(1) With the assimilation of dropsonde data,southwesterly weakens below 800 hPa,then strengthens from 800 hPa to 100 hPa,with the humidity weakening below 500 hPa at initial time.(2) The difference of wind field between with and without the assimilation of data at the initial time propagates to downstream regions with the increase of integration time,affecting the environment of typhoon and modifying the typhoon steering flow.The forecast track error of typhoon is reduced by 18% in 48 hours with the assimilation of dropsonde data.It is considered that the assimilation of dropsonde data released in the upstream regions of Typhoon Morakot improves the typhoon forecast track in this case. |
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| Keywords: | Dropsonde data Assimilation experiment Typhoon track forecast |
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