| 60年来西北太平洋上不同强度热带气旋的变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁金南,林爱兰,刘春霞.60年来西北太平洋上不同强度热带气旋的变化特征[J].气象学报,2008,66(2):213-223. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁金南 林爱兰 刘春霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州,510080 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用美国海军联合台风警报中心(JTWC)提供的1945-2005年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料统计分析了不同强度TC的时空变化特征.南海北部至巴士海峡以东140°E附近、15°-25°N范围内为不同强度TC出现次数最多的区域,其中巴士海峡东部至140°E附近洋面为强台风和超级台风观测次数最多的区域.TC强度在123°E以西表现为减弱和稳定略占多数,而在123°E以东或20°N以南主要以增强和稳定为主,在20°N以北主要以减弱和稳定为主.热带风暴的平均增强率大于减弱率,而强热带风暴、台风、强台风和超级台风的平均减弱率大于增强率.一般而言,TC的强度越强其加强和减弱的速度都越快.在1年当中,同其他月份相比,6-8月弱TC占的比例相对偏多,而9-11月强TC占的比例相对偏多.不同强度TC的观测次数和个数都存在年、年际或年代际的变化,在长期趋势上,热带风暴的观测次数和形成个数都呈现显著的线性递增趋势,而TC平均强度和其他TC个数均未出现显著的线性递增或递减趋势.在El NiAKn～D]o年超级台风个数及其比例显著偏多,而热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风和强台风的总个数显著偏少,TC平均强度显著偏强;而在La Nina年情况相反.
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 强度 频数 时空变化 西北太平洋 Tropical cyclone Intensity Frequency Temporal-spatial variation Western North Pacific |
| 收稿时间： | 2006/12/29 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年12月29 |
Change characters of tropical cyclones with different intensities over the western North Pacific during the last 60 years |
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| YUAN Jinnan,LIN Ailan,LIU Chunxia.Change characters of tropical cyclones with different intensities over the western North Pacific during the last 60 years[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2008,66(2):213-223. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Jinnan LIN Ailan LIU Chunxia |
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| Abstract: | The best track data of tropical cyclones provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) of USA navy over the western North Pacific including the South China Sea from 1945 to 2005 were employed to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of tropical cyclones with different intensities. Most tropical cyclones with different intensities occurred in the area from the northern part of the South China Sea to the eastern part of the Bashi Channel near 140°E or from 15°N to 25°N, and most severe typhoons and super typhoons occurred in the sea area from the eastern part of the Bashi Channel to about 140°E. The tropical cyclones in a weakening or steady state occupied a weaker majority in the area west of 123°E. The majority of tropical cyclones were in an intensifying or steady state in the area east of 123°E or south of 20°N, and in a weakening or steady state in the area north of 20°N. The average decaying rates for severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons, and super typhoons were all greater than the average growing rates, respectively, but the average decaying rate for tropical storms was smaller than the average growing rate. Generally speaking, the stronger the tropical cyclone, the faster the intensification (weakening). Compared with the other months in one year, the percentage of weak tropical cyclones was higher in June to August while in September to November the percentage of strong tropical cyclones was higher. There were the annual, interannual or interdecadal variations of the observation number(every 6-hour) and frequency of tropical cyclones with different intensities. As far as long-term trend was concerned, the frequency and observation number of tropical storms showed a significantly linearly increase trend, but the mean intensity of tropical cyclones and the numbers of the tropical cyclones of other intensity categories did not exhibit any significantly linear increasing or decreasing tendency. In El NiAKn～D]o years, the number and ratio of super typhoons were significantly more, while the total number of tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons and severe typhoons was significantly less, and the mean intensity of tropical cyclones was significantly stronger; however in La Nina years the opposite was true. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone Intensity Frequency Temporal-spatial variation Western North Pacific |
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