| 不同天气现象下毕节高温特征及预报回归检验分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴姗 姚浪 刘健平 帅龙 聂祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省毕节市七星关区气象局,贵州 毕节 551700,贵州省毕节市气象局,贵州 毕节 551700 |
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| 基金项目： | 贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2021]11-12号):不同天气现象下七星关日最高气温特征及预报订正分析。 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用毕节2010-2019年观测资料,分析不同天气现象下日最高气温特征,建立高温模型,并对近5 a 24 h高温进行检验,得出如下结论:(1)毕节高温日变化在夏季最稳定,春季波动最大。气温日较差晴天最大,阴天最小,多云时略大于阴间多云。(2)毕节8~10成云出现频率高达65.7%,夏季晴天频率波动大,春、夏季多云频率较高,且按天气现象分类统计月平均高温时,其峰值均出现在7月。(3) 24 h高温预报准确率月、季变化特征明显,夏季准确率最高,较最低的冬季高出21.4%,在区别天气现象的情况下,阴雨天时预报准确率最高,多云时最低,其中12月多云时最低为25%。(4)回归模型分析发现不同季节同种天气现象24 h高温预报影响因子权重差异明显,日照时数和平均本站气压对模型影响程度较高。不同季节晴天影响因子差异最大,拟合效果最好时段在夏季,平均估计误差为1.2℃,估计误差最大在冬季,平均估计误差为1.7℃。
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| 关 键 词： | 毕节 日最高气温 天气现象 云量 影响因子 回归模型 |
Bijie High Temperature Characteristics and Forecast Regression Test under Different Weather Phenomena |
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| Authors: | WU Shan YAO Lang LIU Jianping SHUAI Long NIE Xiang |
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| Institution: | (Qixingguan Meteorological Bureau of Bijie City,Guizhou Province,Bijie 551700,China;Bijie Meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province,Bijie 551700,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observation data of Bijie from 2010 to 2019, the characteristics of the daily maximum temperature under different weather phenomena are analyzed, a high temperature model is established, and the 24-hour high temperatures in the past 5 years are tested. The results show:(1)the high temperature diurnal variation of Bijie is the most stable in summer and the most unstable in spring. The daily temperature range is the largest in sunny days and the smallest in overcast, and it in cloudy days is slightly larger than that in overcast with cloudy.(2)The frequency of cloud formation from August to September in Bijie is as high as 65.7%, the frequency of sunny days in summer fluctuates greatly, and the frequency of cloudy in spring and summer is relatively high. The monthly average high temperature peaks of various weather phenomena appear in July.(3)The 24 h high temperature forecast accuracy rate has obvious seasonal varitions. The accuracy rate in summer is the highest, 21.4% higher than the lowest in winter. Under the condition of different weather phenomena, the weather phenomenon is the highest when it is overcast and rainy, and the lowest when it is cloudy, and the lowest is 25% when it is cloudy in December.(4)The regression model analysis shows that there are obvious diffrences in the weights of the 24 h high temperature forecasting factors in different seasons and the same weather phenomenon, and the sunshine hours and the average local pressure have a high influence on the model. In different seasons, the difference of the impact factors in sunny weather is the biggest, the best fitting effect is in summer with an average estimation error is 1.2 ℃, the maximum estimation error is in winter, average estimation error of 1.7 ℃. |
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| Keywords: | Bijie daily maximum temperature weather phenomena cloud cover impact factors regression model |
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