| 近36年遵义市暴雨洪涝灾害变化特征及成因分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹德全 |
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| 作者单位： | 贵州省遵义市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 暴雨、大暴雨等自然因素和防洪、除涝工程等社会因数是影响暴雨洪涝灾害发生、发展的重要因素。基于1984-2019年遵义市13个国家气象观测站逐日降水量资料、遵义市第一次自然灾害风险普查暴雨洪涝灾害数据，采用常规统计、突变检验、线性倾向估计、相关分析、对比分析等方法,得出遵义市暴雨、大暴雨以及受灾面积的年际、年代际以及长期变化变化特征，同时揭示农作物受灾面积的变化成因。结果表明：近36年遵义市暴雨日数及其累计降水量呈波动式微弱增加趋势,大暴雨日数及其累计降水量呈显著减少趋势,暴雨、大暴雨均具有不同的阶段性变化特征。1984-1999年农作物受灾面积呈显著上升趋势，2000-2019年农作物受灾面积呈显著下降趋势。大暴雨日数及其累计降水量与受灾面积呈显著正相关，并且具有明显的阶段性差异。暴雨洪涝灾害发生、发展既受暴雨、大暴雨等气象自然因子影响，也受气象灾害防御工程和灾害性天气预报预警水平等社会因素影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 大暴雨 受灾面积 影响因素 遵义市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/12/23 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/9/18 0:00:00 |
Analysis of the Change Characteristics of Torrential Rain and Flood in Zunyi City over the Past 36 Years |
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| Authors: | zoudequan |
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| Institution: | Zunyi Meteorological Bureau |
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| Abstract: | : Construction of heavy precipitation and disaster prevention capacity are important factors affecting the occurrence and development of flood. On the basis of the daily precipitation data from 13 national meteorological observation stations in Zunyi City from 1984 to 2019 and the first national natural disaster risk census data of
torrential rain and flood, I statistically analyzed the change characteristics of heavy rainfall, torrential rain, crop flood-affected area, disaster area and disaster frequency in Zunyi City. Furthermore, I made an in-depth analysis of the causes of the change of flood-affected area, disaster area and disaster frequency from heavy rainfall, torrential rain and social factors. The result demonstrated that heavy rainfall and its accumulated precipitation have shown a fluctuating trend of increase over the past 36 years in Zunyi City, while torrential rain and its accumulated precipitation have shown a significant trend of decrease. The area affected by heavy rainfall and flood and disaster area showed a fluctuating trend of rising first and then descending. The frequency of torrential rain and flood disasters showed a significant trend of increase. The number of days of heavy rainfall and its accumulated precipitation, the number of days of torrential rain and its accumulated precipitation were significantly and positively correlated with the frequency of crop disasters and the affected area. The relationship between heavy rainfall, torrential rain and affected area and disaster area has obvious inter-decadal and stage differences. To sum up, the occurrence and development of heavy rainfall and flood disasters are influenced by both meteorological and social factors, which are closely related to meteorological catastrophic weather forecasting and warning. Therefore, it is of critial significance to strengthen and improve the emergency response mechanism of catastrophic weather. Keywords: Torrential Rain and Flood, Affected area, Influencing Factors, Emergency Response Mechanism, Zunyi City |
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| Keywords: | Torrential Rain and Flood Affected area Influencing Factors Emergency |
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