| 南方低山丘陵地区汛期短时强降水特征分析 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王光明 王文闻 王强 梁晓梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 怀化市气象局,怀化市气象局,怀化市气象局,会同县气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省气象局预报员专项暴雨 短时强降水自动监测与预警(XQKJ18C003) |
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| 摘 要： | 研究汛期短时强降水特征,对于南方低山丘陵地区山洪灾害的预报具有重要指导意义。以怀化市为研究区域,基于该区域11个国家站和403个区域自动气象站的2012-2017年4-9月期间逐小时降水量以及相对应的NCEP资料,分析了怀化市短时强降水的时空分布特征,得出了产生短时强降水天气系统模型,结果显示：①汛期短时强降水发生频率较高,时间集中,分布不均。主要出现在5～7月,占4～9月的72.9%,其次在8～9月；北部频数多,中南部少,西部最少,辰溪、麻阳和怀化三县交界处及沅陵县的大合坪附近是频发区域。②短时强降水日变化呈单峰型,4～10时最容易发生,峰值在8时,谷值在23时。③强度越强出现的频次越少；北部的强度和次数大于其它区域；50～79.9 mm/h,占总站数的68.4%；各月国家站的极值乘以2约等于区域站极值。④低涡型短时强降水出现概率最高,低涡位置和移动路径是短时强降水预报的关键点。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时强降水 特征 低涡 切变线 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/2/18 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/8/14 0:00:00 |
The characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation during flooding term in the low hills of southern China |
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| Authors: | wangguangming wangwenwen wangqiang and liangxiaomei |
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| Institution: | Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huaihua Meteorological Bureau,Huitong County Meteorological Bureau |
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| Abstract: | The characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation have important significance for the prediction of mountain flood disasters during the flooding season in the low hills of southern China. This study using the hourly precipitation from 11 national weather station and 403 automatic weather stations from 2012 to 2017 April to September, and the corresponding NCEP dataset. To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the short-term heavy precipitation in Huaihua. Meanwhile, the weather system model of the short-term heavy precipitation has been analyzed. Results indicate that: (1) the characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall is high frequency, occur time concentrated, and spatial distribution uneven, respectively. It mainly occurs in May-July, accounting for 72.9% in April-September, followed by August-September; the high frequency in the north, then is the central-south region, the west is the least. The junction region of Chenxi, Mayang and Huaihua counties, and the vicinity of Daheping in Yuanling county is the frequent area. (2) The short-term of heavy precipitation is unimodal, the high occurrence frequency at from 4 to 10 pm, with a peak at 8 pm and a trough at 23 am. (3) The stronger intensity and frequently less; the intensity and frequency at the north are larger than other areas; 50~79.9 mm/h, accounting for 68.4% of the total number of stations; the monthly maximum value by 2of the national weather station is equal to the extreme value of the automatic weather station. (4) The low vortex type is the short-time heavy precipitation occur the highest probability, and the position and the moving path of low vortex type are the key points to forecasting short-term heavy precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | Short-term heavy precipitation Spatial and temperature characteristics The low vortex type Shear line |
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