| 华北冬小麦-夏玉米两熟区干旱特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 成林,张广周,陈怀亮.华北冬小麦-夏玉米两熟区干旱特征分析[J].河南气象,2014(4):8-16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 成林 张广周 陈怀亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;河南省气象科学研究所;河南省气象局; |
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| 基金项目： | “十二五”科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD20B04;2011BAD32B02)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 研究华北冬小麦一夏玉米主要生长季的干旱时空特征，可为全球气候变暖背景下制定抗旱减灾对策提供理论依据。利用华北5省（市）64个气象台站1961-2010年逐日降水资料，以降水负距平或降水量表征的干旱指标，通过经验正交分解法提取了冬小麦、夏玉米全生育期和关键生长阶段的特征向量和时间系数，分析了干旱频率、站次比及干旱强度的变化特征，并通过构建冬小麦-夏玉米轮作期综合干旱指数，探讨了华北地区农业干旱的总体状况。结果表明：EOF分解的前4个模态提取了60％以上作物干旱的主要时空分布信息，冬小麦主要生长季收敛效果优于夏玉米；冬小麦全生育期、苗期及拔节-抽穗期干旱的高强度中心主要分布在冀中南、豫北及鲁西北地区，而灌浆-成熟期干旱则以豫东为中心；夏玉米全生育期干旱的高强度中心主要位于冀南和鲁北地区，初夏旱以冀北大部为高强度区，而卡脖旱以豫西和鲁南为高强度区。从时间系数和区域干旱强度及站次比的时间变化趋势看，冬小麦全生育期干旱、灌浆-成熟期干旱及夏玉米初夏旱、卡脖旱均表现为递减趋势，但未通过显著性检验，而冬小麦播种期、拔节-抽穗期干旱，以及夏玉米全生育期干旱为不显著的递增趋势。整个冬小麦-夏玉米轮作期干旱威胁较高的地区主要位于京津局部、冀中南、豫北和鲁北等地区。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水量负距平 经验正交函数 干旱强度 华北平原 |
Characteristic Analysis of Drought for Winter Wheat and Summer Maize Cropping Area in North China |
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| Institution: | Cheng Lin, Zhang Guangzhou,Chen Huailiang(1. CMA · Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 2. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 3. Henan Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Zhengzhou 450003, China) |
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| Abstract: | To study the spatial and temporal character for the main growing season of winter wheat and summer maize in North China could provide theoretical basis for constituting the countermeasures of drought resistance and disaster mitigation under the background of global warming. Based on the 1961-2010 daily precipitation date collected from 64 meteorological stations in 5 provinces （municipalities） of North China, and the negative precipitation anomaly or precipitation drought indexes were used, the eig- envectors and time coefficients of the whole growing season and key growing stages of winter wheat and summer maize were extracted by empirical orthogonal function （EOF） , meanwhile, drought frequency, the proportions of the stations, as well as drought intensity were analyzed. Finally, the overall condition of agricultural drought in North China was discussed by establishing synthetic drought index of winter wheat and summer maize rotation period. The results showed that： the first 4 modes of EOF decomposi- tion represented more than 60% of the information of spatial and temporal distribution character of crop drought, and the effect of convergent in winter wheat growing season was better than that of summer maize. In the whole growing season, seedling stage and jointing-heading stage of winter wheat, high value center for drought was distributed in mid and south part of Hebei province, north of Henan province, and northwest of Shandong province ; however, the high value center during grain filling-maturity stage was lo- cated in east part of Henan province. For the whole growing season of summer maize, south part of Hebei and north of Shandong had high intensity of drought, early summer drought was mainly happened in most |
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| Keywords: | negative precipitation anomaly empirical orthogonal function drought intensity NorthChina plain |
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