| 西北太平洋热带气旋频数的年际、年代际变化及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 夏淋淋,朱益民,程乘,陈晓颖.西北太平洋热带气旋频数的年际、年代际变化及预测[J].河南气象,2014(2):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 夏淋淋 朱益民 程乘 陈晓颖 |
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| 作者单位： | 解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,南京211101 |
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| 基金项目： | 公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201106017）;国家自然科学基金项目（41175090）;江苏省自然科学基金项目（BK2012062）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用1950-2009年60 a的热带气旋资料、NOAA海温、NCEP再分析资料及74项环流指数等资料,研究了西北太平洋热带气旋频数的年际、年代际变化特征,结果表明,西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数既有显著的年际变化,同时也存在明显的年代际变化。自1950年以来,西北太平洋热带气旋频数经历了一个先增加再减少的过程,其中转折点在20世纪70年代中后期,与之相对应,热带气旋路径频数也呈现明显年代际变化。在此基础上,通过分析前期春季海温场、大气环流异常及环流指数与夏季(6-10月)热带气旋生成频数的相关关系,选取了影响夏季西北太平洋热带气旋活动频数的预测因子,建立了一个夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的多元回归预测模型。检验结果表明,该模型能较好地拟合1951-2003年夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数的年际变化,拟合率为0.6。对2004-2009年夏季热带气旋生成频数的独立样本预测试验表明,该模型对夏季西北太平洋热带气旋活动频数具有较好的预测能力,可以为热带气旋业务预报提供一定参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 年际-年代际变化 预测因子 预测模型 |
Interannual to Interdecadal Variations and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific |
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| Xia Linlin,Zhu Yimin,Cheng Cheng,Chen Xiaoying.Interannual to Interdecadal Variations and Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific[J].Meteorology Journal of Henan,2014(2):1-7. |
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| Authors: | Xia Linlin Zhu Yimin Cheng Cheng Chen Xiaoying |
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| Institution: | (School of Meteorology and Oceanography of PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the tropical cyclone （TC） data, NOAA sea surface temperature（SST） dataset, NCEP reanalysis data and 74 circulation indices from 1950 to 2009, the variations of TC frequency over the western North Pacific are investigated. The results indicate that TC frequency exhibits significant in- terannual to interdecadal variations. Since 1950, TC frequency has experienced a increasing trend and then a decreasing trend from pre and past the late 1970s. Concomitantly, the TC paths also show clear interdecadal variations. On this basis,through the analysis of the relation of the previous spring SST field, abnormal atmospheric circulation, circulation index and summer （from June to October） TC frequency, by selecting related predicting factors, a multiple regression predicting model is constructed to predict TC frequency during summer. The test results show this model fits well the TC frequency from 1951 to 2003 and the fixing rate reached to 0.6. Real-time predictions from 2004 to 2009 indicate that this model shows pretty well prediction skills for TC frequency in the western North Pacific. |
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| Keywords: | tropical cyclone interannual to interdecadal variation predicting factor predicting model |
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