| 鹤壁市汛期旱涝趋势预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 芦阿咪,杜滨鹤,靳冰凌,王国斌,陈海明.鹤壁市汛期旱涝趋势预测模型[J].河南气象,2006(1):19-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 芦阿咪 杜滨鹤 靳冰凌 王国斌 陈海明 |
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| 作者单位： | 鹤壁市气象局 河南鹤壁458030(芦阿咪，杜滨鹤，靳冰凌，王国斌)，淇县气象局 河南淇县458030(陈海明) |
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| 摘 要： | 对影响鹤壁市汛期旱涝的主要物理要素进行相关分析,选取相关系数>0.4的冬季季风指数、北半球副高面积指数等物理因子,结合本地气候因子,通过逻辑推理,建立了鹤壁市分县汛期旱涝趋势预测概念模型。旱涝趋势模型对2001~2003年汛雨趋势进行试报,结果3年全报对。在2004年应用中,趋势预报与实况相符。
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| 关 键 词： | 汛期 旱涝趋势 逻辑推理 预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-6372（2006）01-0019-02 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-15 |
The Forecasting model of Drought and Flood trend during Flood period over Hebi |
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| LU A - mi , DU Bin - he , JIN Bing - ling , WANG Guo - bin , CHEN Hai - ming.The Forecasting model of Drought and Flood trend during Flood period over Hebi[J].Meteorology Journal of Henan,2006(1):19-20. |
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| Authors: | LU A - mi DU Bin - he JIN Bing - ling WANG Guo - bin CHEN Hai - ming |
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| Institution: | 1. Hebi Meteorological Bureau , Hebi 458030, China; 2. Qixian Meteorological Bureau , Qixian 458030, China |
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| Abstract: | Selecting physical genes such as index of the winter monsoon and the area of Subtropical high in Hemisphere Northern whose correlative modulus > 0.4,We analyze the main physical elements which affect the Drought and flood during flood period over Hebi,Combining with local climatic gene,We establish the trend forecasting model of Drought and flood during flood period by logic consequence,and use this model to forecast the precipitation trend during flood period in 2001 ~2003.Through the application in 2004,Precipitation forecast during flood period over Hebi is in accordance to what is actually happening. |
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| Keywords: | Flood period Drought and flood trend Logic consequence Forecasting model |
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