| 暴雨型滑坡灾害形成机理及预测方法研究思路 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏丽,单九生,章毅之,刘显耀.暴雨型滑坡灾害形成机理及预测方法研究思路[J].气象与减灾研究,2005,28(3):17-22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏丽 单九生 章毅之 刘显耀 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江西省环境预报中心,江西,南昌,330046
2. 江西省气象科学研究所,江西,南昌,330046 |
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| 摘 要： | 暴雨型滑坡灾害形成机理和预测方法研究，在国内外仍是个难题和热点。本研究的总体思路是：以江西为研究区域，从暴雨型滑坡灾害形成机理及预测理论入手。通过8个滑坡灾害易发点的监测试验，系统地研究大气降水对地下水位、孔隙水压力、滑坡土体应力及滑坡稳定性的影响，探讨植被覆盖与滑坡的关系；根据历史资料，进行滑坡风险区划和暴雨型滑坡的时空分布特征分析；应用统计学和试验研究相结合的方法，提出滑坡体发生滑动的临界雨量指标；开发基于Web—GIS的暴雨型滑坡灾害预报预警业务系统，并进行业务试验。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 滑坡 形成机理 预测 研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9033（2005）03-0017-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-26 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年6月26日 |
The Formative Mechanism And The Research Idea Of Prediction Method About Coast Disaster Of Rainstorm Model |
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| WEI Li,SHAN Jiu-sheng,Zhang Yi-zhi,LIU Xian-yao.The Formative Mechanism And The Research Idea Of Prediction Method About Coast Disaster Of Rainstorm Model[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2005,28(3):17-22. |
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| Authors: | WEI Li SHAN Jiu-sheng Zhang Yi-zhi LIU Xian-yao |
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| Institution: | 1. Environment Forecast Center of Jiangxi Province , Nanehang 330046 , China; 2. Meteorological Science Institute of Jiangxi Province , Nangehang 330046 , China |
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| Abstract: | The study of landslide disasters mechanics triggered by heavy rainfall and predicting methods are still face to some difficulty and hot problems. The techeniques route is described as follow. Based on mechanism of landslide induced by torrential rainstorm and its predicting theory, by monitoring and experiment in eight trial grounds in Jiangxi Province, the impacts of rainfall on underground water table, pore water pressure, soll stress and landslides stability will be studied. The influence of vegetation coverage on landslide is discussed. With historic data, risk division is researched and the temporal-spatial distribution features of landslide induced by heavy rainfall are analyzed. Combining trail data and statistics method, the precipitation values used to predicting and warning landslides are given. Operational forecasting and warning system of landslide disasters triggered by heavy rainfall on Web-GIS is developed, which has been tested in conventional operation. |
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| Keywords: | Rainstorm Coast Formative mechanism Prediction Research |
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