| 江西省盛夏极端高温的气候变化及短期气候预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱珍,章开美,陈胜东,杨华.江西省盛夏极端高温的气候变化及短期气候预测[J].气象与减灾研究,2013(3):12-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱珍 章开美 陈胜东 杨华 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]江西省气象服务中心,江西 南昌330046 [2]江西省气象科学研究所,江西 南昌330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 2012年江西省气象服务中心科研项目“江西省极端气温预报预警方法研究”. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用江西省82个代表站1961-2009年逐日最高温度资料和NECP/NCAR的逐月平均500 hPa高度场资料，分析了江西省极端高温天气的气候变化特征，以及盛夏酷暑年、凉夏年同期及前期环流的差异。结果表明：（1）江西省极端高温天气是与旱季相联系的，极端高温天气主要集中在盛夏（7-8月），占夏半年的79.7％，以赣北的南部更明显；而4-6月只占10.2％，且4-6月赣北的南部为极端高温天气发生概率的极小值区。（2）20世纪90年代末期至21世纪初，江西省极端高温天气呈增加趋势，并且21世纪以后为极端高温天气偏多期。（3）酷暑年盛夏500 hPa位势高度距平场上，在蒙古、西伯利亚有着广阔的负距平区，蒙古高压减弱，阻塞高压不易形成，冷空气不容易在高纬度地区堆积，同时西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强，阻挡冷空气，使其不能继续南下影响江西省，易造成高温天气。（4）初夏（6月）500 hPa位势高度距平场上，东亚大槽位置上有弱正距平，鄂霍次克海以北的俄罗斯及中高纬大陆地区都为负距平区，阿留申群岛附近为正距平区，对应盛夏期东亚大槽位置上正距平加强，中高纬的负距平中心增强，并北抬至40＆#176;N以北，整个江南地区上空受正距平中心控制，副高加强，易造成江西省盛夏极端高温天气偏多。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端高温 相对阈值 周期 趋势 环流 |
The Climatic Features and Short-term Forecast of Extreme High Temperature of Midsummer in Jiangxi |
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| Zhu Zhen,Zhang Kaimei,Chen Shengdong,Yang Hua.The Climatic Features and Short-term Forecast of Extreme High Temperature of Midsummer in Jiangxi[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2013(3):12-17. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Zhen Zhang Kaimei Chen Shengdong Yang Hua |
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| Institution: | Zhu Zhen, Zhang Kaimei, Chen Shengdong, Yang Hua |
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| Abstract: | Using the 1961-2009 monthly average 500 hPa height reanalysis data of NCEP/NCAR and daily precipitation data of 82 representative stations, the climatic characteristics of extreme high temperature are analyzed, and the difference of circulations between during the midsummer year and cool summer year are also analyzed. The conclusions are as follows：（1） The extreme high temperature events in Jiangxi province are associated with the dry seasons, which occur concentratedly in July-August, accounting for 79.7% in the first half of the summer; only 10.2% occur in April-June, and there is a minimal probability area related to the occurrence of extreme hot weather in the south of North Jiangxi.（2） During the late 1990s to early 2000s, the extreme high temperature event presents an increasing tendency,which occurs more frequently after 2000.（3） In midsummer year, the west Pacific subtropical high presents anomaly strong. Among Mongolia and Siberia there is a negative anomaly region, the blocking high is difficult to form, and cold air is not easy to accumulate in the high latitudes, while weak cold air is blocked by westerly flow to affect Jiangxi province. Over Jiangxi province, there is a positive anomaly area, which is easy to cause the high temperature weather.（4） During the early of midsummer, there is a weak positive anomaly among eastern Asian trough, a negative anomaly area among the Russia part of northern Okhotsk and the high latitude region, and a positive anomaly region near Aleutian. These mean that the positive anomaly strengthens around the East Asian trough, and the negative anomaly center in middle and high latitude area strengthens and shifts northwards to 40＆#176;N. The positive anomaly occupies whole of the southern Yangtze, and subtropical high strengthens, which are easy to cause the extreme high temperature weather in Jiangxi province. |
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| Keywords: | Extreme maximum temperature Relative threshold Cycle Tendency Circulation |
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