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| 近百年南京旱涝灾害动态监测指标的研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 沈良芳,缪启龙,吕军,高荣斌,李勇.近百年南京旱涝灾害动态监测指标的研究[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(3):21-25. |
| 作者姓名： | 沈良芳 缪启龙 吕军 高荣斌 李勇 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学,江苏,南京,210044;泰兴市气象局,江苏,泰州,225400 2. 南京信息工程大学,江苏,南京,210044 3. 江苏省气象局,江苏,南京,210009 4. 泰州市气象局,江苏,泰州,225300 5. 泰兴市气象局,江苏,泰州,225400 |
| 摘 要： | 利用南京1905—2004年的月降水量资料,引用帕尔默旱涝指数计算方法,建立适用于南京地区并能够反映旱涝演变过程的动态旱涝监测指标M。由于考虑了时间因子的影响,M指数比Z指数更能反映出动态旱涝的累积演变过程。分析M指数发现,近百年南京地区极端干旱月份多于极端湿润月份,夏季和秋季出现旱涝的机率大于春季和冬季,且旱涝具有连续性,持续时间都在2 a以上。南京地区各季动态旱涝监测指数在近百年中主要以20～15 a、9 a的周期振荡为主,部分时段还存在5 a左右的高频振荡。 |
| 关 键 词： | 帕尔默指数 旱涝 动态监测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9033（2007）03-0021-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-05-16 |
On Dynamic Monioring Indicators of Nanjing Drought and Flood in the Past Century |
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| SHEN Liang-fang,MIAO Qi-long,LU Jun,GAO Rongbin,LI Yong.On Dynamic Monioring Indicators of Nanjing Drought and Flood in the Past Century[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2007,30(3):21-25. | |
| Authors: | SHEN Liang-fang MIAO Qi-long LU Jun GAO Rongbin LI Yong |
| Institution: | 1. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210008, China; 3. Taizhou Meteorological Bureau, Taizhou 225300, China; 4. Taixing Meteorological Bureau, Taizhou 225400, China |
| Abstract: | Using Nanjing monthly rainfall data of 1905-2004, quoting the calculation method of the Palmer drought index, we set up the index M applicable to Nanjing area to reflect the dynamics of drought and flood monitoring. Considering the time factor, the dynamics of drought and flood monitoring index M better reflects the evolution of drought and flood than the Z index. Analyzing M index, we discover that there are more extreme drought month than extreme flood month in the past one hundred years in Nanjing, that the probability of drought and flood in summer and autumn is more than that in spring and winter, and that the drought and flood has continuity, general duration is above two years. The wavelet analysis shows that the M indexes have 9 and 15-20 year oscillation periods in each season; some have 5-year high frequency oscillation periods. |
| Keywords: | Palmer index Drought and flood Dynamic monitoring |
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