| 1953—2011年信江流域径流量变化特征及归因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡菊芳,赵冠男,蔡哲,马锋敏.1953—2011年信江流域径流量变化特征及归因分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2014(1):61-66. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡菊芳 赵冠男 蔡哲 马锋敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气候中心,江西南昌330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化研究专项（编号：CCSF201320）. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用信江流域梅港水文控制站1953—2011年径流量观测资料和11个气象站同期气象观测资料,采用统计方法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法、Morlet小波分析法,对信江流域径流量年内、年际变化的不均匀性、长期趋势、周期变化,及其与气候因素的相关性等进行分析。结果显示,信江流域多年平均径流量呈缓慢增大趋势,但具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,振荡周期明显,年际变化的主要周期为6—8 a,年代际变化的主要周期为准22 a,在20世纪70—90年代最明显。年流量以主汛期(4—6月)为最多,春、夏季(3—8月)径流变差系数小,水量稳定,冬季变差系数大,水量不稳定。流域径流量与气候因素中的降水、蒸发具有显著的相关性,而人类活动中的城镇化、经济、人口等因素对径流变化起到了一定的辅助作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 信江流域 径流变化 小波分析 气候因素 |
Variation Characteristics and Attribution of Runoff in Xinjiang Drainage Basin During 1953-2011 |
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| Hu Jufang,Zhao Guannan,Cai Zhe,Ma Fengmin.Variation Characteristics and Attribution of Runoff in Xinjiang Drainage Basin During 1953-2011[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2014(1):61-66. |
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| Authors: | Hu Jufang Zhao Guannan Cai Zhe Ma Fengmin |
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| Institution: | (Jiangxi Province Climate Center, Nanchang 330046, China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the annual runoff variation and its climate impact factors were analyzed by using statistical analysis method, Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelet analysis method based on the data of runoff volumes at Meigang hydrological station in Xinjiang basin during the period of 1953-2011. The results show that the annual runoff volumes present slightly increase trend with obvious interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics, especially for the period of 1970-1990. The interannual cycle change is 6-8 years and the interdecadal cycle change is about 22 years. The maximal monthly runoff appeared in the main flood season （April-June）. During spring and summer, variation of runoff shows a low coefficient with stable flow quantity while shows the opposite state in winter. Obvious correlation can be found between runoff volumes and climate factors. Moreover, economy, population and human activities in the urbanization played supporting roles in runoff changes. |
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| Keywords: | Xinjiang drainage basin variation of runoff wavelet analysis climate factor |
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