| 江西一次突发性局地强对流天气的雷达回波特征分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭艳.江西一次突发性局地强对流天气的雷达回波特征分析[J].气象与减灾研究,2007,30(1):30-36,F0002. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭艳 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台,江西,南昌,330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省科技厅、江西省气象局多普勒天气雷达预测突发性气象灾害研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对2004年4月11日赣中出现的突发性局地强对流雷达回波资料进行了分析.分析结果表明,这次强对流过程虽然从天气形势上很难做出预报,但从多普勒天气雷达资料上仍可分析出一定的预报特征:最大反射率(DBZM)和最大反射率高度(HGT)的突降,与降雹和龙卷的发生时间具有较好的相关性;垂直积分液态水含量(VIL)的变化,尤其是跃增的特性,对于判断冰雹的增长非常有效,而对于判断降大冰雹的可能性,尤其是微型超级单体的降雹,VIL密度比VIL具有更明显的指示意义;冰雹指数(HI)对强对流天气的预报具有一定的指示意义,尤其当持续出现"PRO"或"POS"报警时,往往表示风暴已发展成熟,极有可能产生剧烈的强对流天气;三体散射回波(TBSS)的出现,预示风暴中可能有大冰雹生成;风暴追踪信息(STI)产品能有效地预报出回波未来的移动方向和影响区域,但对于转折时间,则需结合反射率等产品来进行预报预警服务;风暴内出现中气旋特征时,应做好发布强对流天气预警的准备工作.
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| 关 键 词： | 局地 强对流 多普勒天气雷达 回波特征 江西 突发性 局地 强对流天气 雷达 回波特征分析 Jiangxi Province Convection Severe Emergent Local Radar Echo Characteristics 工作 天气预警 预警服务 反射率 结合 转折时间 影响区域 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-9033（2007）01-0030-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-01-292007-02-26 |
Analysis of the Characteristics of Radar Echo of a Local Emergent Severe Convection in Jiangxi Province |
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| GUO Yan.Analysis of the Characteristics of Radar Echo of a Local Emergent Severe Convection in Jiangxi Province[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2007,30(1):30-36,F0002. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yan |
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| Institution: | Jiangxi Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330046, China |
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| Abstract: | Doppler weather radar data of the local emergent severe convection on 11 April 2004 in the middle of Jiangxi are analyzed, and the results show that though it's hard to predict just using synoptic chart, there are some prediction character in Doppler weather radar data such as: The dive nose of maximum reflectivity (DBZM) and height of maximum reflectivity (HGT) is correlated well with the falling down time of hail and tornado. The change of vertical integrated liquid water (VIL), especially the characteristic of jump, is effective to confirm the growing up of hail, while as concerned of the probability of falling large hail, especially from mini-supercell, VIL density is more predictive than VIL. Hail index (HI) is predictive to severe convection, continuous "PRO" or "POS" signature always mean mature storm, which tend to bring severe convective weather. Three body scatter signature (TBSS) indicate there is large hail. The storm tracking information (STI) is effective in forecasting the storm movement. It performs better in the stable stage than in the shift one, so it must combined with other products to predict the development and movement when publishing warnings. Forecasters should publish severe convection warning once recognized mesocyclone. |
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| Keywords: | Local Severe convection Doppler weather radar Echo characteristics |
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