| 快速更新循环同化在江西暴雨数值模拟中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐星生,肖安,万明,张娟娟.快速更新循环同化在江西暴雨数值模拟中的应用[J].气象与减灾研究,2011,34(3):24-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐星生 肖安 万明 张娟娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台,江西南昌,330046 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所开放基金项目(编号I:HR2009K03); 江西省科技厅科技支撑计划项目(编号:20111BBG70031-4); 江西省气象局重点科研项目(编号:JXQX2009Z03JXQX2010Z03) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于WRF 模式三维同化(3DVar)建立每3 h 快速更新循环同化系统(简称RUC),循环同化地面常规观测资料、探空资料、船舶资料和飞机报,并以此为基础建立预报系统,对2011 年6 月4 日20 时-5 日20 时江西一次大暴雨过程进行模拟检验,初步研究RUC 在江西暴雨预报中的应用.结果表明:(1)RUC 有效改...
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| 关 键 词： | 数值预报 RUC WRF 暴雨过程 |
ASSIMILATION OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLE AND ITS APPLICATION TO NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN JIANGXI |
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| Xu Xingsheng,Xiao An,Wan Ming,Zhang Juanjuan.ASSIMILATION OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLE AND ITS APPLICATION TO NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN JIANGXI[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2011,34(3):24-29. |
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| Authors: | Xu Xingsheng Xiao An Wan Ming Zhang Juanjuan |
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| Institution: | Xu Xingsheng,Xiao An,Wan Ming,Zhang Juanjuan The meteorological observatory of Jiangxi province,Nanchang 330046,China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the WRF 3DVar module, per 3-hour Rapid Update Cycle （RUC） assimilation and forecast system is established. The assimilation data include ground conventional observation data, sounding data, ship observation data and airplane report data, which are obtained by the global telecommunication exchange system. In order to analyze the precipitation forecasting performance,in this paper, a heavy rainfall process between 4th 20：00-5th 20：00 June 2011 in the northern Jiangxi is simulated by using the RUC analysis and forecast system. The results indicate that： （1） RUC effectively improves the low boundary wind structure of the first guess, which tends to be more reasonable and is more likely to induce the precipitation at the rainstorm area. （2） RUC improves the atmospheric unstable stratification structure, increases the atmospheric stratification unstable energy at the middle and high level of the air. （3） RUC makes a precise forecast of the area and intensity of heavy rainfall, especially the intensity between Dongxiang--YuJiang （the center of the cloud burst）, presents slight deviation at the western area of Yichun and Shangrao. （g） Through the intercomparison of the 6-hour accumulation rainfall at the cloud burst center （Dongxiang）, RUC predicts more accurate precipitation at the time-interval, which reflects the intensity and the changing tendency of the 6-hour accumulation precipitation. This indicates that RUC has a certain ability to make the weather forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | Numerical forecast Rapid Update Cycle Mesoscale Heavy rainfall |
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