| EC-thin降水预报与极端天气预报指数在浙江暴雨预报中的检验与释用 |
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| 引用本文： | 傅 良,娄小芬,张玉静.EC-thin降水预报与极端天气预报指数在浙江暴雨预报中的检验与释用[J].气象与减灾研究,2020,43(4):275-283. |
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| 作者姓名： | 傅 良 娄小芬 张玉静 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江省气象台,浙江杭州310017;杭州市气象局,浙江杭州310051 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省气象局预报员专项项目(编号：2019YBY02). |
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| 摘 要： | 利用ECMWF模式降水和极端天气指数资料，以及浙江省68个气象站降水观测资料，评估了ECMWF细网格模式(EC-thin)和降水极端天气指数(EFI)对浙江2018—2020年梅汛期暴雨预报效果。研究表明：对于同一预报时效，随着阈值的增加，EC-thin和降水EFI的暴雨预报评分都呈现“先增加、后减小”的趋势，对于不同预报时效都存在某一阈值使得暴雨预报评分达到最大。从24 h时效到72 h时效，EC-thin的降水预报阈值从45 mm逐渐下降到25 mm，而降水EFI的暴雨预报阈值从07下降到06。EC-thin和降水EFI对暴雨预报的空报率随着阈值的增大而减小，漏报率随着阈值的增大而增大。对于不同预报时效，通过合理组合EC-thin降水阈值和降水EFI阈值，可以得到更好的暴雨预报效果，其评分高于单独使用降水EFI阈值或EC-thin降水阈值得到的评分。
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| 关 键 词： | 暴雨 ECMWF模式 预报产品 效果检验 梅汛期 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/7/25 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/9/28 0:00:00 |
Verification and application of the EC-thin model and extreme weather forecast index (EFI) on rainstorm forecast in Zhejiang |
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| Fu Liang,Lou Xiaofen and Zhang Yujing.Verification and application of the EC-thin model and extreme weather forecast index (EFI) on rainstorm forecast in Zhejiang[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2020,43(4):275-283. |
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| Authors: | Fu Liang Lou Xiaofen and Zhang Yujing |
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| Abstract: | Based on the ECMWF high-resolution model and Extreme Weather Forecast Index (EFI) , and precipitation data obtained at 68 meteorological stations of Zhejiang, the effects of ECMWF and EFI on rainstorm forecast during Meiyu season in 2018-2020 were evaluated. Results showed that: For the same forecast effectiveness, with the increase of the threshold, the ETS score of EC-thin and EFI for rainstorm forecast first increased and then decreased, and a threshold was found for different forecast time to reach the maximum score. With the leading forecast time increased from 24 h to 72 h, the threshold of rainstorm forecast of EC-thin reduced from 45 mm to 25 mm, while the threshold of rainstorm forecast of EFI reduced from 0.7 to 0.6.The false alarm rate of EC-thin and EFI for rainstorm forecast decreased as the threshold increased, while the missed alarm rate increased as the threshold increased. In different forecast effectiveness, by combining the thresholds of EC-thin and EFI reasonably, a higher skill-score of forecast can be obtained, which was higher than the score obtained by using precipitation EFI or EC-thin alone. |
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| Keywords: | rainstorm ECMWF high-resolution model forecast product effect test Meiyu season |
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