| 基于云模型—风险矩阵的华南台风灾害综合等级评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐庆娟,潘金兰,刘合香.基于云模型—风险矩阵的华南台风灾害综合等级评估[J].气象与减灾研究,2020,43(3):161-169. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐庆娟 潘金兰 刘合香 |
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| 作者单位： | 南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西南宁530100;南宁师范大学数学与统计学院,广西南宁530100;广西北部湾海洋灾害研究重点实验室,广西钦州535000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(编号：41665006)； 广西自然科学基金(编号：2020GXNSFAA159103)； 南宁师范大学博士科研启动项目(编号：20180406001). |
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| 摘 要： | 文中从台风灾害的致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性两方面选取评价指标，利用最小鉴别信息原理计算组合权重，采用模糊数学方法得到台风致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性的评价指数。基于云模型和风险矩阵，构建一个新的台风灾害等级评估模型。以1984—2016年登陆华南的50个台风为例，对华南台风灾害风险进行综合等级评估，结果与实际相符。与基于云模型—权重分配、模糊数学的台风灾害综合风险等级评估模型的结果进行比较，发现基于云模型—风险矩阵的台风灾害综合等级评估模型，不仅利用了云模型的优点，充分考虑了台风灾害的模糊性和随机性，还利用风险矩阵合成了台风致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性的评价结果，比单一的模糊数学模型更合理可靠，在一定程度上也比云模型—权重分配模型结果更符合实际。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风灾害 等级评估 云模型 风险矩阵 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/7/9 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020/9/16 0:00:00 |
Comprehensive grade assessment of typhoon disaster in South China based on cloud model risk matrix |
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| Xu Qingjuan,Pan Jinlan and Liu Hexiang.Comprehensive grade assessment of typhoon disaster in South China based on cloud model risk matrix[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2020,43(3):161-169. |
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| Authors: | Xu Qingjuan Pan Jinlan and Liu Hexiang |
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| Institution: | School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanning Normal University,School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanning Normal University and Guangxi Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster Research in Beibu Gulf |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the evaluation indexes were selected from two aspects of typhoon disaster risk and the vulnerability of disaster bearing body, the combination weight was calculated by the principle of minimum discriminant information, and the evaluation index of typhoon disaster risk and vulnerability was obtained by fuzzy mathematics method. Based on cloud model and risk matrix, a new typhoon disaster grade assessment model was constructed. Taking 50 typhoons in South China from 1984 to 2016 as cases, the comprehensive grade of typhoon disasters in South China was evaluated, and the evaluation results were in good agreement with the reality. Compared with the evaluation results of cloud model weight distribution model and fuzzy mathematics model, it was found that the typhoon disaster comprehensive grade assessment model based on cloud model risk matrix not only makes use of the advantages of cloud model, and the fuzziness and randomness of typhoon disasters were fully considered. Moreover , the risk matrix was used to synthesize the evaluation results of typhoon disaster risk and vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies. It was more reasonable and reliable than a single fuzzy mathematical model, and to a certain extent, the result was more in line with the reality than the cloud model weight distribution model. |
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| Keywords: | typhoon disaster grade assessment cloud model risk matrix |
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