| 以月份动态变化为背景的华南台风动态风险评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢耀健,刘合香,王萌,李广桃.以月份动态变化为背景的华南台风动态风险评估[J].气象与减灾研究,2019,42(4):261-269. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢耀健 刘合香 王萌 李广桃 |
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| 作者单位： | 南宁师范大学 数学与统计学院， 广西 南宁 530029,南宁师范大学 数学与统计学院， 广西 南宁 530029,南宁师范大学 数学与统计学院， 广西 南宁 530029,南宁师范大学 数学与统计学院， 广西 南宁 530029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（41665006）；广西重点研发计划项目（AB19110020）;广西研究生教育创新计划项目(YCSW2020195). |
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| 摘 要： | 选取1983—2017年登陆华南地区的53个台风样本,进行以月份变化为条件的动态风险评估。首先,利用灰关联-模糊综合评价法构建风险指数;其次,采取信息扩散技术估计不同月份的台风风险强度概率分布,识别风险强度与直接经济损失之间的函数关系;最后,以添加时间要素且与月份有关的动态风险评估模型为基础,进行以损失期望为内涵的台风风险评估。结果表明,风险指数与直接经济损失相关显著(相关系数为0.710 8);华南地区一年内不同月份的台风风险强度概率分布并不相同,承灾体脆弱性整体随风险强度的增大而增大;一年内的台风风险水平分布并不相同,7月达到台风风险水平的最大值,5—6月的台风风险水平最低。
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| 关 键 词： | 台风，动态风险，灰关联-模糊综合评价，信息扩散 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/10/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/11/18 0:00:00 |
Dynamic risk assessment of typhoon in South China based on monthly dynamic variation |
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| Lu Yaojian,Liu Hexiang,Wang Meng and Li Guangtao.Dynamic risk assessment of typhoon in South China based on monthly dynamic variation[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2019,42(4):261-269. |
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| Authors: | Lu Yaojian Liu Hexiang Wang Meng and Li Guangtao |
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| Abstract: | Fifty-three typhoon samples landing in South China from 1983 to 2017 were selected to carry out dynamic risk assessment under the condition of monthly variation. The corresponding risk index was constructed by using the grey correlation fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method firstly. then, the probability distribution of typhoon risk intensity in different months was estimated and the functional relationship between risk intensity and direct economic loss was identified by applying the information diffusion technique. Finally, the typhoon risk assessment based on loss expectation was carried out by the month related dynamic risk assessment model of adding time factor. The results showed that the risk index presented a good correlation with direct economic loss, with the correlation coefficient of 0.7108. The probability distribution of typhoon risk intensity in South China was not the same in different months of a year, and the vulnerability value of disaster bearing body increased with the increase of risk intensity. The distribution of typhoon risk level in one year was different, the maximum value of typhoon risk level appeared in July, and the lowest typhoon risk level occurred in May-June. |
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