| 基于改进型逆推法和模糊评价法的暴雨服务效益评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 盛志军,周 雨,熊 力.基于改进型逆推法和模糊评价法的暴雨服务效益评估[J].气象与减灾研究,2022,45(4):310-315. |
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| 作者姓名： | 盛志军 周 雨 熊 力 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台， 江西 南昌 330096;江西省气象服务中心， 江西 南昌 330096;江西省减灾备灾中心， 江西 南昌 330001 |
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| 基金项目： | 2021年江西省气象局面上项目“南昌城市内涝关键气象影响指标研究”；2020年江西省气象局重点项目“暴雨灾害综合风险评估技术研究”；江西省气象局面上项目（编号：JX2021M18）. |
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| 摘 要： | 对2010—2022年江西省70次暴雨过程开展了气象服务效益评估，在充分考虑政府组织决策水平、部门联防联动、公众参与及气象服务水平等影响的情况下，加入赋权系数，结合隶属度函数构建重要因子矩阵，基于改进的逆推法和模糊综合评价法建立了江西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益评估模型，实现了江西省暴雨灾害气象服务效益定量化评估。结果表明，2010—2022年江西省暴雨灾害直接经济损失和气象服务效益均有逐渐增长的趋势，不可避免损失因子为0.17—0.50，气象服务效益占经济总损失的25%—45%。暴雨灾害直接经济损失和气象服务效益相关性较高，表明气象服务在防灾减灾工作中起重要作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 气象服务，暴雨，效益评估，逆推法，模糊评价法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/6/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/11/5 0:00:00 |
Benefit Evaluation of Rainstorm Service Based on Improved Inverse and Fuzzy Evaluation Algorithm |
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| Sheng Zhijun,Zhou Yu,Xiong Li.Benefit Evaluation of Rainstorm Service Based on Improved Inverse and Fuzzy Evaluation Algorithm[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2022,45(4):310-315. |
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| Authors: | Sheng Zhijun Zhou Yu Xiong Li |
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| Abstract: | Considering the influence of government organization and decision, departmental joint defense, public participation and meteorological service level, the benefit of meteorological service for 70 rainstorm processes in Jiangxi province from 2010 to 2022 were evaluated in this paper, and the important matrix factors were constructed by combining membership function, then the evaluation model of meteorological service benefit of rainstorm disaster in Jiangxi province was established based on the improved inverse and fuzzy evaluation algorithm. The quantitative evaluation of meteorological service benefit of rainstorm disaster in Jiangxi province was realized. The results showed that the direct economic losses and meteorological service benefit of rainstorm disasters in Jiangxi province increased gradually from 2010 to 2022, the inevitable loss factor was 0.17-0.50, the benefit of meteorological service accounted for 25%-45% of the total economic loss. The direct economic loss of rainstorm disaster presented highly correlation with meteorological service benefit, indicating the meteorological service had high importance in disaster prevention and reduction. |
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| Keywords: | meteorological service rainstorm benefit evaluation inverse method fuzzy evaluation method |
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