| 基于平流-干旱模型估算的江西省实际蒸发量时空变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 苏校平,林志坚,田 俊.基于平流-干旱模型估算的江西省实际蒸发量时空变化特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2021,44(4):241-250. |
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| 作者姓名： | 苏校平 林志坚 田 俊 |
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| 作者单位： | 南昌市气象局, 江西 南昌〓330038;江西省农业气象中心, 江西 南昌〓330096 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省气象局面上项目“江西省早稻雨洗花灾害监测与评估技术研究”；南昌市气象局科技项目“南昌大雾灾害特征分析与预报研究”. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用江西省93个气象站观测资料，基于平流 干旱模型对1961—2019年江西省实际蒸发量进行估算，再进行气候倾向率、贡献率计算、敏感性分析和M K检验等，分析蒸发量的时空变化特征及其影响因素。结果表明：江西省蒸发量呈显著下降趋势，幅度为-547 mm/(10 a)；蒸发量在1969年发生突变，突变后其下降趋势明显减弱；夏季蒸发量下降最为显著，秋季次之，春、冬两季不明显。蒸发量对风速变化表现为负敏感，对气温、水汽压、净辐射量变化表现为正敏感，且任意时段内蒸发量对气象因子变化的敏感程度均为净辐射量>气温>风速>水汽压。净辐射量变化是影响江西省夏季蒸发量变化的主导因子，但其他季节净辐射量变化是气温、净辐射量和风速的共同作用的结果。随着气候逐渐变暖，气温和风速等因素对蒸发量变化贡献的增加不容忽视。
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| 关 键 词： | 蒸发量，时空分布，影响因子，敏感度，贡献率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021/9/10 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2021/10/17 0:00:00 |
Spatial-temporal variations of evaporation in Jiangxi province based on the advection-aridity model |
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| Su Xiaoping,Lin Zhijian,Tian Jun.Spatial-temporal variations of evaporation in Jiangxi province based on the advection-aridity model[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2021,44(4):241-250. |
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| Authors: | Su Xiaoping Lin Zhijian Tian Jun |
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| Abstract: | Based on the advection-aridity model and the meteorological observation data from 1961 to 2019 in Jiangxi province, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of actual evaporation were investigated under background of climate change by using the method of climate tendency rates, M K test and sensitivity analysis. The result showed that, the evaporation decreased significantly by -5.47 mm/(10 a) from 1961 to 2019. During the study period, a mutation occurred in 1969 and then the downward trend obviously reduced. The downward trend of the evaporation in summer was the most significant, followed by autumn, and not obvious in spring and winter. The evaporation presented negative sensitivity to wind speed and positive sensitivity to temperature, water vapor pressure and net radiation. The sensitivity of each meteorological factor was: net radiation > temperature > wind speed > water vapor pressure. The net radiation was the dominant factor for the variation of evaporation in summer. However, the variation of evaporation in other period was caused by the combined action of temperature, net radiation and wind speed. The impact of temperature and wind speed on the variation of evaporation should be followed under the climate warming background. |
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