| 诱发沪昆铁路江西段沿线水害和地质灾害的临界雨量初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 金勇根,吴凡,袁正国,龙余良.诱发沪昆铁路江西段沿线水害和地质灾害的临界雨量初探[J].气象与减灾研究,2019,42(2):127-132. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金勇根 吴凡 袁正国 龙余良 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象灾害防御技术中心,江西南昌,330046;江西省气象服务中心,江西南昌,330096;江西省气象灾害应急预警中心,江西南昌,330096 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省科学技术厅社会发展领域项目（编号：20142BBG70035） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2008—2015年南昌铁路局管辖内沪昆铁路沿线(以下称沪昆线)的灾情资料、工务段编组站监测雨量和沿线附近的自动站雨量数据,分析了沪昆线由降雨诱发的水害和地质灾害特征,以揭示其与降雨强度的关系。结果表明:沪昆线降雨诱发的水害和地质灾害种类多、发生频率高,灾害年度差异较大;边坡、堤坡和堑坡的溜坍占全部水害和地质灾害事件的一半以上,且发生的时间集中在4—8月,与江西的主汛期时间一致;暴雨和连续性降雨是引起沪昆线水害和地质灾害的主要原因。最后基于警戒雨量临界值,将致灾前1 h最大降水量、3 h降水量、24 h降水量和连续降水量作为初始预报因子,采用事件概率回归法,建立了沪昆铁路江西段出巡、限速、封锁警戒的概率预报模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路 水害 地质灾害 临界雨量 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/1/28 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/4/24 0:00:00 |
Preliminary study on critical rainfall inducing water and geological disasters along Shanghai-Kunming railway in Jiangxi province |
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| Jin Yonggen,Wu Fan,Yuan Zhengguo and Long Yuliang.Preliminary study on critical rainfall inducing water and geological disasters along Shanghai-Kunming railway in Jiangxi province[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2019,42(2):127-132. |
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| Authors: | Jin Yonggen Wu Fan Yuan Zhengguo and Long Yuliang |
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| Institution: | Disaster Prevention Technology Center of Jiangxi,Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi,Meteorological Disaster Emergency Warning Center of Jiangxi and Meteorological Service Center of Jiangxi Province |
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| Abstract: | Based on the geological and water disaster data along Shanghai Kunming Railway and the precipitation data of marshalling stations and automatic stations from 2008 to 2015, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of geological and water disasters caused by rainfall along Shanghai Kunming Railway were analyzed, and the relationship between precipitation intensity and geological disasters was discussed. The results showed that geological and water disasters along Shanghai Kunming Railway were various and occurred frequently, the annual variations of the disasters were quite different. Among all of the geological and water disasters, the slump of slope, embankment and cutting slope accounted for more than half of the total, and the occurrence of disasters was concentrated in April-August, which coincided with the main flood season in Jiangxi province. Rainstorm and continuous rainfall process were the main causes for the geological and water disasters along Shanghai Kunming Railway. Based on the 1 hour maximum precipitation, 3 hour precipitation, 24 hour precipitation and continuous precipitation that caused disasters, the probabilistic prediction model of disasters along Shanghai Kunming Railway Line was established using probability regression method. |
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