| 基于ECMWF模式的江西及周边地区锋面暴雨预报检验和订正 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙素琴,张瑛,吴静,许爱华.基于ECMWF模式的江西及周边地区锋面暴雨预报检验和订正[J].气象与减灾研究,2023,46(1):28-34. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙素琴 张瑛 吴静 许爱华 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台;江西省农业气象中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 2022年江西省气象局灾害风险普查项目（编号：JX2022ZHFXPC03；JX2022ZHFXPC02）；2020年江西省气象局重点项目（编号：JX2020Z09）；2021年江西省气象局面上项目（编号：JX2021M18）. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用全国降水资料（包括江西加密降水资料）、探空资料、ECMWF模式72—24 h降水和形势预报资料，采用天气学检验、SAL定量降水预报检验等方法，对2017—2019年江西及附近地区锋面暴雨的实况和模式产品进行检验分析，检验主要影响天气系统预报效果，得出ECMWF模式降水预报误差分布特征及原因，并对模式的暴雨预报进行订正。结果表明：ECMWF模式对2017—2019年锋面暴雨过程预报较实况大多偏北，落区预报误差主要源于大尺度降水。从锋面暴雨三种SAL分析误差可见，落区预报较实况大多偏北，暴雨过程强度多数较实况偏弱，结构较实况偏小。对误差较大个例的分析得出两点订正思路：1） 锋区南侧有较明显动力热力对流发展的弱锋区暴雨，暴雨落区可订正至925 hPa锋区南侧高温高湿区。2） 较强锋面暴雨，当中低层切变辐合抬升区重叠时，暴雨落区可向925 hPa锋区位置调整，暴雨通常不易出现在锋区北侧冷区。
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| 关 键 词： | ECMWF模式 锋面暴雨 预报误差 SAL 检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2023/1/5 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2023/2/10 0:00:00 |
Verification and preliminary calibration on frontal rainstorm forecast of ECMWF model in Jiangxi and nearby areas |
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| Sun Suqin,Zhang Yin,Wu Jing,Xu Aihua.Verification and preliminary calibration on frontal rainstorm forecast of ECMWF model in Jiangxi and nearby areas[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2023,46(1):28-34. |
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| Authors: | Sun Suqin Zhang Yin Wu Jing Xu Aihua |
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| Institution: | Jiangxi Province Meteorological Bureau;Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center |
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| Abstract: | Based on the national precipitation data (including the fine precipitation data in Jiangxi), the actual ground data and sounding data, the 72 -24 h precipitation and situation prediction data of ECMWF model, the actual situation and model products of frontal rainstorm in Meiyu period in Jiangxi and nearby areas from 2017 to 2019 were discussed by using the methods of synoptic verification and SAL quantitative verification method. The error distribution characteristics and causes of ECMWF model precipitation forecast were obtained, and the model rainstorm forecast was revised to be closed to the actual situation. The results showed that the directions of model forecast precipitation area were generally more north than normal comparing with observation about the frontal rainstorm process from 2017 to 2019. The prediction error of large scale precipitation area of the model was the main source of rainstorm area prediction error in Meiyu period. From the three error distributions of frontal rainstorm in Jiangxi and nearby areas, it can be seen that the forecast on the falling areas were more northerly, the intensity of most rainstorms processes were weaker, and the structures were smaller. After analyzing the cases with large prediction error, the following correction ideas were obtained: 1) For the rainstorm in the weak front area, when the dynamic thermal convection developed obviously in the south of the front area, the rainstorm falling area can be corrected to the high temperature and high humidity area in the south of the 925 hPa front area. 2) For the rainstorm with strong front, when the shear convergence and lifting areas of the middle and low layers overlapped, the rainstorm falling area can be adjusted to the position of 925 hPa front area, and rainstorms were usually not easy to occur in the cold area on the north side of the front area. |
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